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Analytics

NFL Advanced Player Betting Stats

Value of Data Driven Betting

For years we have posted articles using data to make player prop bet and team betting predictions.

Analytics & Predictions Fundamentals

Large Sample Size: The sample size is chosen to maximize the chance of uncovering a statistically significant edge. Larger samples provide more confidence in the data. With over 20,000 NFL player prop betting results in our database. We have the data.

Bet the Player not the Team: It’s easy to just think the better player on the better team is the right bet. However, our analytics has shown that is not always true. Did you know that when Blake Bortles was quarterback for the Jaguars he was a better OVER bet on passing yards than Tom Brady? We did and profited off of a data driven approach to NFL betting.

NFL Betting Analytics Articles

Below you will find research driven insights and analytics to improve your player and team betting. These articles are free and in large part we are able to do this because we profit off of your picks so we have no need to sell them.

What Is An NFL Correlated Parlay Bet?

A correlated parlay is a bet comprising different bets that are closely linked together in terms of outcome. They’re not technically tied together, but if one bet wins it’s extremely likely the other bet will win as well.

Las Vegas NFL sportsbooks figured out long ago that they couldn’t allow players to parlay the first quarter and first half totals, because if the game went over in the first quarter it had more than 50% chance of going over for the first half.

The advent of daily fantasy sports has lead to the boom in NFL player prop betting. Once again, Las Vegas sportsbooks just took advantage of their sports betting monopoly to ban player and game parlay bets. Why should they take the time to see if there is a real correlation when they have a monopoly on legal sports betting in the US. This has changed as sports betting has become legalized across the US and new competitors have entered the market. Notably, it was the sportsbooks with extensive dfs experience (Draftkings & Fanduel) who have brought correlated betting to the US market. Now that the ice has been broken, it is time to use data to see if there is a correlation between prop bets and game bets. Enter PropBets.Football. We have been making NFL player prop bets our primary football bets for years. As you can see from our site we are not knew to this. We also have a mathematics background and have taken the time to amass an NFL player prop betting database with over 20,000 results to base our projections on.