NFL Week 01 Correlation Bets Player Props & Game
Player prop & game correlation bets for week 01 of the 2021 season. Which player prop correlates to a spread win or going over the total? We will take a look at which bets do correlate and which ones you are just throwing money away on.
We are using our exclusive prop betting and game results database with over 60,000 betting results for our correlation models.
All odds are from Bovada sportsbook.
Aaron Rodgers Betting Correlations
In the 2020 regular season Aaron Rodgers went 12 and 3 on his touchdown passing prop bets. That meant he went over the posted total 12 times and under just 3 times. What did the Packers do against the spread in the 12 times he went over? They covered the spread 10 times. Not just won the game but covered the spread.
This week he is going against the New Orleans Saints in Jacksonville. Last season Saints opponents went over on touchdown passes prop bets 9 times and under just 5 times.
Another strong correlation is interceptions. Rodgers went under on his interception props 12 times and the Packers covered the spread in 11 of those games.
The Saints opponents had a slight lean to the under on interception props with their opponents going over the total 6 times and under 8 times.
This looks like a good spot for Aaron to go over on his touchdown passes prop AND for Green Bay to cover the spread.
Aaron Rodgers OVER touchdown passes 2.5 at (+130)
Aaron Rodgers UNDER interceptions 0.5 at (-180)
Game bet: Packers -3.5 (-115)
Joe Burrow & Kirk Cousins Correlation Bets
Both of these quarterbacks have correlations that work with the game total. In the Bengals games that Joe Burrow started, he went over on 5 passing yards prop bets and under on 5. Not a trend in itself but when looking at the game total we see a trend. In the games he went over the game total went over 4 times and under 1 time. In the 5 games he went under on his passing yards prop bet the total went over 2 times and under 3 times. Remember, this isn’t a team total but the game total for both teams.
The Vikings opponents went over on passing yards props 8 times and under 7 times.
Kirk Cousins was a strong over play on his touchdown props going over 11 times and under just 4 times. In the 11 games he went over the game total went over 8 times and under 3 times.
Bengals opponents went over on their touchdown props 9 times and under 6 times.
Joe Burrow OVER on passing yards 270.5 (-115)
Kirk Cousins OVER on touchdown passes 1.5 (-150)
Game bet: OVER 47.0 (-110)
Devin Singletary Buffalo Correlation Bets
Last season he was a good bet to go over on receiving yards props with 9 going over the total and 6 going under. When he went over on his prop the Bills were 9 and 0 against the spread. However, he is going against the Steelers who are one of the best in the NFL and holding down receiving yards for running backs. Last season the Steelers defense allowed just 2 running backs to go over on receiving yards while holding them under 17 times. In case you are wondering why there were 19 receiving yard props offered several games where 2 backs had this prop offered.
When Singletary goes over on his rushing yards prop bets the Buffalo Bills were 6 and 0 against the spread.