Tom Brady Super Bowl 2021 Prop Bet Predictions
Tom Brady returns for another Super Bowl this time with a new team. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a home team for Super Bowl LV. If you are making prop bets on Tom Brady then it pays to take a look at his results for the season.
Tom Brady 2020 Prop Betting Results
The table below has the ROI for Tom Brady using Bovada sportsbook odds. The return is based on making a $100 bet on every over and under bet offered in the 2020 regular season.
Tom Brady Prop Bets ROI 2020
|wdt_ID||player||prop bet||team||over roi||under roi|
|62||Tom Brady||All Bets||TB||-840.70||-379.33|
|65||Tom Brady||Longest Completion||TB||-200.00||163.33|
|66||Tom Brady||Passing Attempts||TB||-6.32||-189.65|
|67||Tom Brady||Passing Yards||TB||8.22||-185.15|
|68||Tom Brady||Rushing Yards||TB||-400.00||323.88|
|69||Tom Brady||Touchdown Passes||TB||-4.28||-350.91|
The reason both sides are negative is the vig in the odds. As you can see ther was a slight advantage to the under bets. The best bet for Tom Brady was the under bet on rushing yards which would have netted you a $323.88 profit if you had made the bet every week.
Take a look at the interceptions prop bets. You might think the over is always good for the offense but in this case it is the under that Bucs fans want to see win. The interceptions line is almost always set to 0.5 for a game. That means the under pays when Brady doesn’t throw one interception.
Rushing yards is no surprise for Brady. He does not run during the regular season. If you had bet $100 on the under all 16 regular season games then you would have a profit of $323. Not bad for a brain dead bet. Find more like these and spread the money around and you will be cashing a lot each week on NFL games.
Here is an example from an article I wrote last year that sums up what you could be making if made prop betting part of your regular betting activity.
Tom Brady Prop Bets : Spread & Totals Correlations 2020
|3||Tom Brady||QB||Passing Attempts||9||9||0.50||4||5||0.44||7||2||0.78|
|4||Tom Brady||QB||Passing Yards||9||9||0.50||6||3||0.67||6||3||0.67|
|5||Tom Brady||QB||Touchdown Passes||9||8||0.53||8||1||0.89||5||4||0.56|
The table is based on Bovada betting odds for the 2020 season including the playoffs.
The Over/Under columns are the results of the player going OVER or UNDER the prop bet each week.
Prop Bet = The bet offered by the sportsbook
Over = The number of times the player went OVER the line on his prop bet.
Under = The number of times the player went UNDER the line on his prop bet.
%OVER = Percentage of times the player covered the OVER on his prop bets.
S-WIN = Number of times a team COVERED the spread when a player went OVER on his prop bets
S-LOSS = Number of times a team DID NOT COVER the spread when a player went OVER on his prop bets
%W&O = Percent of the times the team COVERED the spread when the player covered the OVER on a prop bet.
TO-O = Number of times a game went OVER the total when a player went OVER on his prop bets
TU-U = Number of times a game total went UNDER when a player went OVER on his prop bets
TO-PO% = Percent of the times the game went OVER the total when the player covered the OVER on a prop bet.
Tom Brady Super Bowl 55 Prop Bet Predictions
- Tom Brady went OVER on touchdowns prop bets 9 times and the Buccaneers covered the spread in 8 of the 9 games.
Tom Brady Passing Touchdowns OVER 2.5 (+110)
My best bet.
Tom Brady to win MVP (+200)
If Tampa wins then Brady will be the MVP and his +200 odds are better than the +140 the Bucs are getting on the money line.