Bovada NFL Prop Bet Results Year Over Year Trends 2017-20
Below is a quick dive into the trends on Bovada NFL player prop bets from 2017 up to the first six weeks of the 2020 season. The results are a percentage result of bets that covered the over. While some bets are trending upward, overall the betting results are consistent from year to year.
Quarterback Percentage OVER on NFL Player Props 2017-20
Overall quarterback prop bets have trended toward the under. This isn’t unusual as almost all prop bets are more likely to cover the under bet than the over bet. By no means is this an accident. Sportsbook managers know that fans love to bet the over on player props so they shade the lines a little to the over.
To go a step further in breaking down Bovada NFL player prop bets I separated out the percentage that won on OVER bets. To calculate the percentage over I used this forumula
= OVER Wins /(Total Bets – Push Results)
The Chart below has each bet percentage results grouped by bet type. This is a quick way to see if there are and trends to a particular prop bet.
The bets results are a percentage of bets that went over so the odds are not taken into consideration.
There is one quarterback prop bet that has covered the over all four years. The interceptions have been just above .500 all four years. Another prop bet that stands out is the rushing attempts. This is a relatively new bet and isn’t offered on every game. In fact, the 2018 results of 100% over was based on only one rushing attempts prop bet offered in 2018.
Running Back Percentage OVER on NFL Player Props 2017-20
Running back prop results have been very consistent over the last four seasons. Look at the most common prop bet for running backs which is rushing yards. The high for over bets was in 2018 at 43.80% while the low is this season at 40.00%.
Wide Receiver Percentage OVER on NFL Player Props 2017-20
If you are looking for a prop bet that is covering the over more this season than in past seasons. Then take a look at receiving yards for wide receivers. This season the over has covered 49.01% which is a significant increase over the past three seasons. The results are for the first six weeks of the 2020 season so there is still time for the it to revert to normal later.
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