Patriots vs Ravens Prediction

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens NFL Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction

When: 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, November 3, 2019
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC. 
Bovada Line: Patriots -3. O/U: 45

The Patriots are seeking its first 9-0 start since 2015.  Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, the only quarterback to ever pass for at least 1,500 yards and rush for 500 in the first seven games of a season.

New England leads the league with 19 interceptions and 31 sacks, including five last week, but its run defense showed some cracks by allowing the Cleveland Browns to rush for 159 yards in the 27-13 victory.  Second-year running back Sony Michel has at least 16 rushing attempts over the past five games but he is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry.

Jackson threw for a season-low 143 yards in a 30-16 victory at Seattle on last week but he ran for 116 yards and a touchdown. Running back Mark Ingram has rushed for 470 yards and seven scores while Mark Andrews has a team-high 36 receptions and is one of three tight ends that have combined for 62 catches. The Ravens defense has had problems this season allowing an average of 265.4 yards passing a game.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends

Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games when playing at home against New England

New England Patriots Betting Trends

New England is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games on the road
New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

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Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Bet Stats

Below are the NFL Player 2019 prop betting results using the Bovada sportsbook betting lines. Lamar Jackson is a slight win on betting the over while Mark Ingram has been a solid under bet this season.

RavensWinLossPushTotal
 Gus Edwards$260.87($400.00) ($139.13)
 Hayden Hurst ($100.00) ($100.00)
 Lamar Jackson$2,085.97($1,700.00) $385.97
 Mark Andrews$544.20($500.00) $44.20
 Mark Ingram II$514.78($1,200.00)$0.00($685.22)
 Marquise Brown$163.88($600.00) ($436.12)
 Nick Boyle$86.96  $86.96
 Willie Snead$624.25($600.00) $24.25
 Miles Boykin ($100.00) ($100.00)
Total$4,280.91($5,200.00)$0.00($919.09)

New England Patriots Player Prop Bet Stats

If you have been making player prop bets on Tom Brady then I hope you were betting the under. If you had only bet the under you would have made $411 so far this season. That is not unusual for Brady as he is one of the top under plays over the last three seasons.

PatriotsWinLossPushTotal
 Antonio Brown$80.00  $80.00
 Ben Watson ($100.00) ($100.00)
 Jakobi Meyers$380.87  $380.87
 James White$1,080.66($700.00) $380.66
 Josh Gordon$353.81($800.00) ($446.19)
 Julian Edelman$666.77($700.00) ($33.23)
 Matt LaCosse ($200.00) ($200.00)
 Philip Dorsett$378.08($300.00) $78.08
 Rex Burkhead$319.26($100.00) $219.26
 Sony Michel$473.77($600.00) ($126.23)
 Tom Brady$1,788.03($2,200.00)$0.00($411.97)
Phillip Dorsett ($200.00) ($200.00)
Total$5,521.24($5,900.00)$0.00($378.76)

Patriots vs Ravens Game Betting Prediction:

The Ravens defense is not what it used to be. Brady should be in position to have a 285+ passing yard night and at least 2 touchdowns. However, the Patriots do have trouble with running quarterbacks. The Pats should be able to take away Mark Ingram but that will give Jackson an opportunity to run. I like him to have a decent game against the Pats but not good enough to pull out the win. Going for a totals bet in this.

Bet: Over 44.5

Score Prediction: Patriots 28 – Ravens 24

Patriots vs Ravens Prop Bet Prediction:

Over the last two and a half seasons, if you had bet the over on every Tom Brady player prop bet offered by Bovada. You would have lost $4,631.55. This season Brady is only down $411 after 8 weeks of play. However, I see no reason to go against a very strong trend of Brady being a solid under bet.

For the numbers that back this up see the article:

This NFL Player Prop Bet made $106,975 over the last 2.5 years

 

Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)
Under 277.5 (-115)

Total Passing Attempts In The Game – Tom Brady (NE)
Under 37.5 (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Tom Brady (NE)
Under 1.5 (+115)

Total Completions – Tom Brady (NE)
Under 24.5 (-115)

Total Interceptions Thrown – Tom Brady (NE)
Under 0.5 (-130)

Total Rushing Yards – Mark Ingram II (BAL)
Under 52.5 (-115)

Total Passing Attempts In The Game – Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Under 29.5 (-115)

Total Touchdown Passes – Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Over 1.0 (-115)

Total Rushing Yards – Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Over 60.5 (-115)

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