Los Angels Rams vs New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction & Prop Bet Picks

Rams vs Saints Week 9

The reason this game is in New Orleans is that the Saints beat the Rams 45-35 in Week 9. Michael Thomas caught a late 72-yard touchdown reception and Thomas finished with a club-record 211 yards receiving. Drew Brees passed for 346 yards and four touchdowns

Alvin Kamara scored three times, twice on runs and once on a 16-yard catch in the first half. Los Angeles rallied to tie it at 35 with 21 unanswered points in less than 21 minutes, starting with Greg Zuerlein’s 56-yard field goal as time expired in the first half. Jared Goff passed for 391 yards and three touchdowns.

Los Angeles Rams

Defensively, Los Angeles allowed 5.1 yards per carry during the regular season. But vs. Dallas, the Rams held the Cowboys to just 50 yards rushing. That was Dallas’ lowest rushing output of the season, and the fewest yards on the ground L.A. has allowed all year. Defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh was a significant factor in the Rams shutting down the Cowboys ground game as Suh picked up four total tackles.

Having cornerback Aqib Talib should help against New Orleans. Talib watched from the sidelines as cornerback Marcus Peters was burnt by Thomas all day.

New Orleans Saints

The news wasn’t good as an MRI Monday confirmed Saints DT Sheldon Rankins tore his Achilles’ tendon in Sunday’s Divisional Round win. Rankins was a huge presence in the middle of the Saints’ defense this season, stopping the run and generating pass-rushing heat to the tune of eight sacks.

Rankins, the 12th pick in the 2016 draft, out of Louisville, had a breakout year in his third season with eight sacks, 15 quarterback hits, 12 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. He had started 44 straight games, including the playoffs after returning from a broken leg he suffered in his first NFL preseason in 2016.

Also, Saints left guard Andrus Peat played Sunday despite suffering a broken hand in Week 17 and having surgery during the bye week. Peat had four penalties (including two holding calls).

The Saints are 6-0 at the Superdome in the postseason since coach Sean Payton was hired in 2006.

Rams at Saints NFC Championship Betting Trends

  • Home team is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New Orleans
  • LA is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • LA is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams’ last 6 games on the road
  • New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
  • New Orleans is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 8 games

Los Angeles Rams Prop Bet Previews

Robert Woods Rams WR

 Robert Woods lead the Rams with eight targets last week. This week the big question is how will the Rams be able to run the ball. I think they will be able to do a better job on the ground and that will eat into Woods targets.

Woods, RobertWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets20188613564.441,2196
Red Zone201871546.67 4
All targetsvs NO5862.5710
       
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201869   
Receiving Yards201878   

Brandin Cooks Rams WR

Brandin Cooks finishing with a 6 receptions 114 yards and one touchdown line on eight targets in his revenge game. There is no reason to think the Saints will be able to do any better against him this time. I don’t think he will have as many receptions but the yardage total should be 65+ yards.

Cooks, BrandinWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets20188012365.8512046
Red Zone2018161888.89 5
All targetsvs NO68751141
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201887   
Receiving Yards201878   

Josh Reynolds Rams WR

Josh Reynolds was held to a single catch last week but he should be expected to see more volume this week as well.

Reynolds, JoshWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018305158.824026
Red Zone201871450 4
All targetsvs NO00000
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201813   
Receiving Yards201813   

Gerald Everett Rams TE

Tyler Higbee actually saw more targets last week (4) than Gerald Everett (2) and out-snapped him 55 to 34.

Everett, GeraldWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018335567.273203
Red Zone201871163.64 2
All targetsvs NO3560480
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201822   
Receiving Yards201832   

Tyler Higbee Rams TE

Tyler Higbee actually saw more targets last week (4) than Gerald Everett (2) and out-snapped him 55 to 34.

Higbee, TylerWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018243571.432922
Red Zone20183650 2
All targetsvs NO2450400
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201801   
Receiving Yards201821   

Todd Gurley Rams RB

Todd Gurley ran for 115 yards and one touchdown on just 16 carries, but it was C.J. Anderson who shined. Rushing for 123 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. Gurley still out-snapped Anderson 45 to 34 and saw more targets in the passing game (2 to 1). A big part of who will get more touches is how close the score is. If you like the Saints to run out to a lead then Gurley getting 5+ receptions is a good bet. If you think it will be close, then Anderson has shown an ability to make tough inside rushes that Gurley would bounce out on.

ReceivingWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018598672.095805
Red Zone201891947.37 4
All targetsvs LAR6875110
       
Rushing YardsWhenRushesYardsTDs  
Rushing Yards2018256125117  
Redzone Rushes201864 17  
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Rushing Yards201868   
Receiving Yards2018410   

Jared Goff Rams QB

Jared Goff went 15/28 for 186 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. The Rams committed to the running game and the Cowboys couldn’t stop them. The Rams rushed 48 times, and that’s why Goff wasn’t needed to unleash many passes. When these two met earlier this season with the Rams trailing, Goff threw 40 times for 391 yards and three touchdowns. With the Saints acting as a funnel defense this season (3rd against the run but 22nd against the pass), this feels like a spot where Goff should have tremendous upside. Update, the injury to Sheldon Rankin gives the Rams a chance to run the ball better than last time. I have to like CJ Anderson to get some tough yards in this game and help setup the play action pass.

PassingWhenCompletionsAttemptsYardsTDsINT
All Passes20183645614,6883212
Red Zone20185596363232
All Passesvs NO284039131
       
RushingWhenRushesYardsTDs  
Rushing Yards2018431082  
Redzone Rushes20186132  
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Completions2018410   
Attempts2018510   
Yards201869   
TDs201887   
INT2018510   
       
Pass DistributionCompletionsAttemptsComp %YardsAvg%
Short Right13518473.37%13957.5830.67%
Short Left10717162.57%9715.6828.50%
Short Middle9112175.21%11209.2620.17%
Deep Right185731.58%5339.359.50%
Deep Left194542.22%55812.47.50%
Deep Middle142263.64%40618.453.67%

New Orleans Saints Prop Bet Previews

Below you will find regular season stats and player prop betting results. Prop bets are posted as over / under bets so the results will reflect if a player went over the posted number or under the number.

Michael Thomas Saints WR

Michael Thomas exploded last week for a 12 reception, 171 yard and 1 touchdown game on 16 targets. Thomas was unstoppable in their first meeting with the Rams, with 12 receptions for 211 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 targets against Marcus Peters. However, this week he will be up against Aqib Talib and I expect the Rams to be able to hold down the production for Thomas.

Thomas, MichaelWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets201813016379.751,4059
Red Zone2018243177.42 7
All targetsvs LAR131681.252111
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201896   
Receiving Yards2018510   

Tre’ Quan Smith Saints WR

Tre’Quan Smith played on just 30% of the snaps last week (compared to Tedd Ginn’s 52%).

Smith, TreQuanWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018284365.124275
Red Zone201841040 3
All targetsvs LAR2366.67231
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201837   
Receiving Yards201837   

Ted Ginn Jr Saints WR

Tre’Quan Smith played on just 30% of the snaps last week (compared to Tedd Ginn’s 52%).

Ginn, TedTimeReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets201818306020192
Red Zone20182540 1
All targetsvs LAR00000
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201822   
Receiving Yards201822   

Benjamin Watson Saints TE

In a close game I like Benjamin Watson to get 3+ receptions and 35+ receiving yards.

** Benjamin Watson is out vs the Rams **

Watson, BenjaminTimeReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018354676.094003
Red Zone20186966.67 3
All targetsvs LAR3475621
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receptions201857   
Receiving Yards201859   

Alvin Kamara Saints RB

Last week Alvin Kamara out-carried Mark Ingram 16 to 9 and was out-targeted in the passing game 4 to 2. Alvin Kamara also out-touched Ingram 23 to 10 in their first meeting, with Kamara scoring twice on the ground and once through the air. Given the likelihood that this game remains close, I’m siding with Kamara this week. If you are live betting and you see the Saints get to a sizeable lead, then make in game prop bets on Mark Ingram to go over on rushing yards.

ReceivingWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets20188311174.773426
Red Zone2018222975.86 5
All targetsvs LAR4580341
       
Rushing YardsWhenRushesYardsTDs  
Rushing Yards201819488314  
Redzone Rushes20185016613  
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Rushing Yards201878   
Receiving Yards2018312   

Mark Ingram Saints RB

Last week Alvin Kamara out-carried Mark Ingram 16 to 9 and was out-targeted in the passing game 4 to 2. Alvin Kamara also out-touched Ingram 23 to 10 in their first meeting, with Kamara scoring twice on the ground and once through the air. Given the likelihood that this game remains close, I’m siding with Kamara this week. If you are live betting and you see the Saints get to a sizeable lead, then make in game prop bets on Mark Ingram to go over on rushing yards.

ReceivingWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018212680.771701
Red Zone201811100 0
All targetsvs LAR125030
       
Rushing YardsWhenRushesYardsTDs  
Rushing Yards20181386456  
Redzone Rushes201828996  
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Rushing Yards201843   
Receiving Yards201812   

Drew Brees Saints QB

Drew Brees wasn’t especially sharp last week against the Eagles, but he came alive later in the game to finish with 301 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. This is a home game for Drew Brees and his massive home/road splits with a 21 touchdown to 1 interception ratio. Brees also shredded this Rams defense at home earlier in the season for 346 yards and four touchdowns. If you look at his prop betting results for the season, you will notice he is a solid under play on both passing attempts and completions. That in large part is caused by the Saints having a lead in games and going run heavy in the second half of games.

PassingWhenCompletionsAttemptsYardsTDsINT
All Passes20183644893,992325
Red Zone20186388363220
All Passesvs LAR253634640
       
RushingWhenRushesYardsTDs  
Rushing Yards201831224  
Redzone Rushes20186134  
       
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Completions2018410   
Attempts2018510   
Yards201869   
TDs201887   
INT2018510   
       
Pass DistributionCompletionsAttemptsComp %YardsAvg%
Short Right13718773.26%11596.234.19%
Short Left13817578.86%12096.9131.99%
Short Middle668577.65%5906.9415.54%
Deep Right235145.10%64912.739.32%
Deep Left173351.52%45313.736.03%
Deep Middle91656.25%30318.942.93%

Los Angeles Rams Prop Bet Picks

Using Fanduel odds because they are first up. If you are in New Jersey check them out. If not, then go with one of our top NFL sportsbooks that you can bet from anywhere in the USA – online or phone.

Todd Gurley Rushing Yards UNDER 67.5 (-118)

C.J. Anderson Rushing Yards OVER 53.5 (-118)

Robert Woods Receiving Yards UNDER 74.5 (-118)

Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards UNDER 69.5 (-110)

Gerald Everett Receiving Yards OVER 21.5 (-118)

Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards OVER 18.5 (-118)

Jared Goff Passing Attempts UNDER 36.5 (-112)

Jared Goff Completions UNDER 23.5 (-112)

Jared Goff Passing Yards UNDER 288.5 (-108)

New Orleans Saints Prop Bet Picks

Using Fanduel odds because they are first up. If you are in New Jersey check them out. If not, then go with one of our top NFL sportsbooks that you can bet from anywhere in the USA – online or phone.

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards UNDER 64.5 (-118)

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards OVER 37.5 (-108)

Mark Ingram Rushing Yards OVER 39.5 (-108)

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards UNDER 98.5 (118)

Tre Quan Smith Receiving Yards OVER 26.5 (-108)

Ted Ginn Jr Receiving Yards UNDER 53.5 (-118)

Drew Brees Passing Attempts UNDER 36.5 (-112)

Drew Brees Pass Completions UNDER 24.5 (-112)

Drew Brees Passing Yards UNDER 303.5 (-118)

 

Rams vs Saints Team Prop Bet Picks

I am using several online sportsbooks to get the best price. Since odds can change daily I would recommend doing a little line shopping. Here are bonus codes to top online sportsbooks. Open an account before the game starts so you can use only the best lines before or during the games.

Best Online Sportsbook Bonus Codes from PropBets.Football

Alternative Spread Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (+165)

Alternative Total Game UNDER 53.5 (+120)

Total Points Saints UNDER 30.5 (-125)

Margin of Victory Rams 1-6 points (+400)

Margin of Victory Rams 7-12 points (+700)

 

Rams vs Saints Betting Predictions:

The first game was a wild shootout with the Saints pulling away early and closing out the game with a 45-35 victory. A few big changes since then. For the Saints, they have lost a big run stuffer in Sheldon Rankins. Combine that with the emergence of C.J. Anderson and the Rams will have the chance to run the ball in this game. On defense for the Rams, they now have Aqib Talib back and that is a big help. Marcus Peters is burnt toast with a big mouth. Talib can handle Michael Thomas and force the Saints to look elsewhere for big plays.

I have the Rams sticking to the running game and going play action later in the game for several big plays. I really like Anderson and both Rams tight ends to get plenty of touches in a ball control offense that will keep the Saints offense off the field. For the Saints, the offense has not been that good down the stretch and even a shaky Eagles defense was able to hold them in check. I like Alvin Kamara as a receiving back but when he gets hit hard trying to run the ball he gets scared and will try and bounce every running play wide.

In a lower scoring game than last time, I have the Rams winning a close game that will go down to the final minutes. I am making several bets on the Rams & Under on both regular and alternate betting lines.

If you are going to be making prop bets or alt line bets on the game then check out our exclusive prop & alt line stats on the previous game between the Saints & Rams

Patriots vs Chiefs Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction

Bets: Rams +3, Rams ML, Under 57

Score Prediction:
Rams 27 – Saints 24

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