2019 Super Bowl 53
Rams vs Patriots
Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams made it to the Super Bowl following one of the worst blown calls in NFL history in the NFC Championship game almost two weeks ago. Lucky to be here? They were the number two seed in the NFC. In 2018 the Rams (15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 9-9 O/U) averaged 32.9 points per game ranking second in the NFL And, don’t forget that despite all of that scoring the Rams best player is an interior defensive lineman tackle Aaron Donald.
The best way to beat Tom Brady is to get pressure up the middle and to the Rams can definitely do that because of Donald and fellow standout defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The Rams held Dallas to 22 points in the divisional round before mostly keeping Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in check in their 26-23 overtime win in the NFC Championship game. The Rams also have cornerbacks Aqib Talib back and he can cover anyone on New England’s roster man-to-man, thereby freeing up their front seven to get after Brady early and often.
- Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Rams are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are in a Super Bowl? In 2018 New England (13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS, 7-11 O/U) looked a little down at the midpoint of the season but once again came on strong late. This season the Patriots are better balanced on both sides of the ball in ranking fourth in scoring (27.2 ppg) and seventh in points allowed (20.3 ppg).
The Patriots are playing their best offensive football of the season at just the right time, having scored 37 points or more in each of their last three games dating back to their regular season finale.
Super Bowl: Where, When, Odds
- When: Sunday, February 3, 2019 at 6:30 PM ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
- TV: CBS
- Live Stream: NFL Live
- Super Bowl LIII Odds: New England -2.5 / Total: 58
- Tip – The odds vary so shop around
Patriots vs Rams Betting Trends
- New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
- New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games when playing LA Rams
- LA is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
- LA is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams’s last 5 games at home
- Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
Tom Brady didn’t have a GOAT game, going 30-for-46 for 348 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The Rams ranked 9th in pass DVOA but 28th in run DVOA. This looks like a good spot to use Sony Michel to rack up the yards on the ground. That is exactly what the Patriots did against the Chiefs’ 32nd ranked run defense, rushing 48 times.
Tom Brady has at least 40 passing attempts in his last four Super Bowls. Against the Falcons he had an incredible 62 passing attempts. However, that has driven by the Patriots being down a lot and having no choice but to pass on every down. The Patriots are running the ball more and they may just ride Sony Michel and keep the Rams offense off of the field. Sony Michel is averaging 26.5 rushing attempts in the playoffs with five rushing touchdowns. The one thing he isn’t is a great receiving back so if the Pats are down he will not be on the field. James White is the receiving back and if the Pats find it difficult to run in the game he is also trusted by Brady. His history of big games in the playoffs can not be ignored. I don’t expect Rex Burkhead to be a factor in the Super Bowl. I know he rushed 12 times last week for two touchdowns but I consider that to be more of a fluke than any trend.
Is Rob Gronkowski back? Last week he had a team high 11 targets and ended the game with 6 receptions for 79 yards and no touchdowns. I really like him in this spot. If you read my prop bet picks you will know that against the type of defense Wade Phillip runs, the tight end is in a great position to get yards. Against Phillips and the Broncos defense in the AFC Championship game he had over 140 receiving yards.
Julian Edelman, saw 10 targets last week and had 7 receptions for 96 yards and no touchdowns. The Rams will try and stop Brady by taking away the quick passes that Edelman feasts on. I don’t like him to have a big game against this defense. Phillip Dorsett should get Marcus Peters, ranked #95 by PFF and Chris Hogan should see Aqib Talib, ranked #20 by PFF. Last week Dorsett was in on 37% of the plays and Hogan was in on 74%. The Patriots will really feel the loss of Josh Gordon in this game. I know Hogan had a 6 reception for 128 receiving yards and one touchdown game in last years Super Bowl but the Rams defense should be able to contain him with Talib covering him.
Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview
Jared Goff didn’t have a great game but he made the plays he needed to for the victory. Goff finished with 25 completions on 40 passing attempts for 297 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. The Patriots defense ranked 14th in pass DVOA and 19th in run DVOA.
If there is one big question mark on the game it is Todd Gurley. In the NFC Championship game he played on just 32 of the 69. He rushed only four times for 10 yards and a touchdown. He also caught just one of his three targets. C.J. Anderson rushed 16 times for 44 yards and caught his lone target while playing on 37 of the 69 snaps. If you read my prop bet picks on Todd Gurley then you will know that I have full faith he will return and be the running back we are used to seeing.
Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods, both may have a tough time against a Patriots defense that will take away the big play. Just look at what they did to Tyreek Hill and you will see that they can scheme to takeout any receiver. I really do not expect much from Brandin Cooks who should see a lot of Stephon Gilmore (ranked #1 by PFF). Robert Woods should see J.C. Jackson in the slot (ranked #51 by PFF) and Josh Reynolds will have Jason McCourty (ranked #14 by PFF) on him. The Patriots defense has the ability to shutdown the Rams wide receivers.
So, where will Goff get his yards? The combination of Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have combined for 612 receiving yards and five touchdowns this season. The Patriots allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, tied with Cincinnati for the most in the league. Last week Everett played on 68% of the snaps while Higbee played on 57% of the snaps. I like both to go over on receiving yards as the Rams will be able to take advantage of the Patriots linebackers and that will help them control the ball on offense.
Super Bowl 53 Betting Predictions
Who will win? More important. Who will cover the Super Bowl? Both of these teams went to overtime to get here and I have this as another game that will go down to the end to be decided. The betting line has gone back and forth between the Patriots as a 2.5 or 3 point favorite. If you are in Las Vegas betting then and you want to bet on the Rams I would wait until all of the Los Angeles crowd gets to Las Vegas on Saturday and they should get the line to +3 (-110) for the Rams. I will be betting with online sportsbooks who offer a full line of prop bets and alternate lines on my phone.
All of the talk about Belicheck has glossed over the point that he will be going against the Rams offense but it will be his offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. I have a big edge to Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips in this matchup. Will Belicheck be able to slow down the Rams offense? Yes. Will Phillips be able to slow down the Patriots offense? Yes. I have a relatively low scoring Super Bowl going to the fourth quarter. The two players who will make the difference and be the deciding factor? Todd Gurley and Greg Zuerlein. If you want to know what Todd Gurley can do against the Pats, take a look at what Kareem Hunt did against them. Why Greg Zuerlein? The man does it again and closes out a Rams victory with a late field goal.
Super Bowl 53 Final Score Prediction:
Los Angeles Rams 27 – New England Patriots 24
Rams +3 (-120),
Rams Money Line +125,
Rams Alt Line -2.5 (+135) at Bovada
Under 58 (-110) at MyBookie,
Under Alt Line 54.5 (+110) at Bovada
Super Bowl MVP:
Todd Gurley +1000 at Bovada
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