New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction & Prop Bet Picks

In Week 6 matchup between Kansas City & New England, the Chiefs lost 43-40 on the road. Stephen Gostkowski hit a 28-yard field goal as time expired. Tom Brady passed for 340 yards and a touchdown and ran for another score. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes finished 23 of 36 for 352 yards in his first loss as a starting quarterback, with three of his four TD passes going to Tyreek Hill. With the Chiefs trailing 40-33, he connected with Hill for a 75-yard score that tied the game with just over three minutes remaining. Brady marched the Pats down the field in a series that included a 39-yard completion to Rob Gronkowski to get New England into field-goal range.

Last week against the Chargers, the Pats got out to a big early lead in a  42-28 win. Tom Brady completed 34-of-44 passes for 343 yards and a touchdown. He buried the Bolts early with short passes, most of them to Julian Edelman (9 receptions for 151 yards) and James White (15 receptions for 97 yards). New England scored on each of its first four drives and went to the half with a 35-7 lead. Sony Michel made his postseason debut a memorable one by rushing for 129 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. New England is 3-3 straight-up in its previous six playoff games as an underdog. New England had been favored in its past 12 playoff games, a streak that dates back to the 2013 AFC Championship Game. The last time the Pats were road dogs was against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in a game they lost 26-16.

The Chiefs were easy 31-13 winners over Indianapolis last Saturday to end a six-game home playoff losing streak. Patrick Mahomes completed 27-of-41 passes for 278 yards and rushed three times for eight yards and a touchdown. All four of the Chiefs’ touchdowns came on the ground. Running back Damien Williams rushed 25 times for 129 yards and a touchdown and caught 5-of-6 targets for 25 yards. Tyreek Hill caught 8-of-13 targets for 72 yards and rushed once for a 36-yard touchdown.  WR Sammy Watkins (foot) returned with 6 receptions on 8 targets for 62 yards.

Over their last two games, the Chiefs’ defense has allowed just nine total points. The Chiefs’ defense held the Colts to 263 total yards of offense on Saturday, which was their second-lowest total of the season.


Latest Patriots vs Chiefs AFC Championship Betting Trends

  • Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Championships games
  • Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings
  • New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England’s last 10 games
  • Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City’s last 14 games at home

New England Patriots Prop Betting Preview

Julian Edelman Patriots WR

Julian Edelman remains the lone receiver we can really trust here on the Patriots. Edelman led all receivers last week with 13 targets and had a 9 reception 151 yards. Edelman did have a touchdown against these Chiefs earlier this season. He only had 8 targets in that game but I expect him to get at least 8 if not 10+ this time.

Edelman, JulianWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets20187411267.868506
Red Zone2018141973.681064
All targetsvs KC4850541
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receiving Yards201873   

Chris Hogan Patriots WR

Don’t sleep on Chris Hogan this week. The last time he went against the Chiefs he had 4 catches on 4 targets for 78 yards.

Hogan, ChrisWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018355961.025323
Red Zone20182825121
All targetsvs KC44100780
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receiving Yards201817   

Phillip Dorsett Patriots WR

Phillip Dorsett is a redzone receiver but has yet to put up meaningful yards.

Dorsett, PhillipWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets20183240802903
Red Zone20187887.5503
All targetsvs KC00000
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receiving Yards201843   

Rob Gronkowski Patriots TE

Last week Rob Gronkowski was used more as a blocker, finishing with just one catch for 25 yards. He might not be the old Gronk but he is in a good spot against the Chiefs. I like him at 4+ receptions & over 55 yards.

Gronkowski, RobWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets20184775646823
Red Zone20183933.33371
All targetsvs KC3560970
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receiving Yards201848   

James White Patriots RB

Sony Michel ran all over the Chiefs last time and if he gets hot again then there will not be much work for James White, If you like the Chiefs to score a lot then James White is a top pick for receiving yards. If you like the Pats to stay close then the play is Michel.

ReceivingWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets20188712371.547517
Red Zone2018162272.731177
All targetsvs KC5771.43530
Rushing YardsWhenRushesYardsTDs  
Rushing Yards2018944255  
Redzone Rushes201818213  
Rushing Yardsvs KC6350  
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Rushing Yards201832   
Receiving Yards201866   

Rex Burkhead Patriots RB

Last week Rex Burkhead only had 4 carries but once again vultured a touchdown.

ReceivingWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018141973.681311
Red Zone20182633.33241
All targetsvs KC00000
Rushing YardsWhenRushesYardsTDs  
Rushing Yards2018571860  
Redzone Rushes2018250  
Rushing Yardsvs KC000  
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Rushing Yards201800   
Receiving Yards201800   

Sony Michel Patriots RB

The Chiefs’ run defense isn’t good, and that’s the main case in favor of Sony Michel. I like him to run allover the Chiefs again like he did against the Chargers defense, 24 rushes for 129 yards and 3 touchdowns. Big correlation play. Pats up or close then Michel over on rushing yards. Pats behind then White over on receiving yards.

ReceivingWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets201871163.64500
Red Zone20181110070
All targetsvs KC01000
Rushing YardsWhenRushesYardsTDs  
Rushing Yards20182099316  
Redzone Rushes201839895  
Rushing Yardsvs KC241062  
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Rushing Yards201844   
Receiving Yards201801   

Tom Brady Patriots QB

Tom Brady and the Patriots enter as three point underdogs in what sets up to be a high-scoring game unless the weather cools things off. The Chargers defense was shredded last week for 343 yards and a touchdown. When these two last played the Pats won 43-40 but Brady only went for 340 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for one as well. The Chiefs rank 12th in pass DVOA but dead last in run DVOA.

All Passes20183755704,3552911
Red Zone20184986376181
All Passesvs KC243534010
Rushing Yards201823352  
Redzone Rushes2018682  
Prop  ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Pass DistributionCompletionsAttemptsComp %YardsAvg%
Short Right13920567.80%13066.3734.22%
Short Left12316773.65%11506.8927.88%
Short Middle8011768.38%9007.6919.53%
Deep Right114027.50%3418.536.68%
Deep Left193948.72%55314.186.51%
Deep Middle133141.94%36311.715.18%

Tyreek Hill Chiefs WR

When these two teams met earlier, Tyreek Hill had 7 receptions for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns on 12 targets. In large part this was because the Pats focused on shutting down Kelce.

Hill, TyreekWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets20188713465.671,47912
Red Zone2018101662.5 5
All targetsvs NE81361.541423
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receiving Yards201878   

Sammy Watkins Chiefs WR

Last week Sammy Watkins played on 93% of the snaps in his first game back from injury and didn’t appear limited at all. Watkins may be the guy if the Pats find a way to cover Hill and Kelce. However, I think he is too hit and miss to put money down on.

Watkins, SammyWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018426267.745193
Red Zone201851050 3
All targetsvs NE2450180
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receiving Yards201853   

Chris Conely Chiefs WR

Chris Conely is an afterthought in the Chiefs offense. However, he is in a good spot for “in-play” or live betting. I would wait to see how the Pats play the Chiefs in the first quarter. If the Pats have made a commitment to stop Tyreek Hill then Conely is a good in play prop bet on the over for receptions. I know that sportsbooks in Las Vegas are not capable of offering this wager but Bovada does offer it. If do not have an account with Bovada yet, then the banner below or our bonus codes will give you a 50% welcome bonus up to $250.

Conley, ChrisWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets2018355662.53345
Red Zone201881172.73 5
All targetsvs NE11100190
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receiving Yards201828   

Travis Kelce Chiefs TE

The Patriots focused on shutting down Travis Kelce last time and Hill made them pay for it. I like them to focus more on Hill this time and make Mahomes throw underneath passes to Kelce. Like him to get 8+ receptions.

Kelce, TravisWhenReceptionsTargetsComp %YardsTDs
All targets201810915968.551,33611
Red Zone2018193063.33 9
All targetsvs NE5771.43610
Prop Bet ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Receiving Yards201888   

Patrick Mahomes Chiefs QB

Patrick Mahomes was fairly quiet in last week’s win over the Colts, throwing for 278 yards and rushing for a touchdown. The Patriots rank league-average against the pass and surrendered 352 yards and four touchdowns to Mahomes earlier this season. The Patriots were able to keep Mahomes off the scoreboard in the entire first half of that game, but Mahomes had all four touchdowns in the second half.

All Passes20183835805,0975012
Red Zone20186396461351
All Passesvs NE233635242
Rushing Yards2018602722  
Redzone Rushes201815492  
Prop ResultsWhenOverUnder   
Pass DistributionCompletionsAttemptsComp %YardsAvg%
Short Right14621169.19%13856.5634.03%
Short Left12516874.40%12417.3927.10%
Short Middle7210469.23%9138.7816.77%
Deep Right235740.35%69712.239.19%
Deep Left184440.91%56712.897.10%
Deep Middle203655.56%65118.085.81%

Kareem Hunt Chiefs RB

I know he is no longer a part of the team but, he was on the roster the last time these two teams played so it is worth knowing what he did.

In week 6 of the 2018 season he had, 10 rushes for 80 yards and 5 receptions for 105 with 1 receiving touchdown.  In 2017, the Chiefs blow out the defending Super Bowl champs in a 42-27 win. Hunt ran 17 times for 142 yards and a rushing touchdown. As a receiver he had 5 receptions for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns.

New England Patriots Prop Bet Picks

Using odds. is available for action everywhere in the US. is one of our top NFL sportsbooks that you can bet on from anywhere in the USA – online or phone.

Tom Brady Passing Yards UNDER 283.5 (-105)

Tom Brady Passing Attempts UNDER 37.5 (-105)

Tom Brady Completions UNDER 24.5 (-105)

Tom Brady Rushing Touchdown YES (+750)

Julian Edelman 8+ Receptions (+110)

Chris Hogan Receiving Yards UNDER 27.5 (-110)

Rob Gronkowski 5+ Receptions (+150)

Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards OVER 42.5 (-125)

James White Receiving Yards OVER 52.5 (-140)

James White Receptions OVER 5.5 (-185)

Sony Michel Rushing Yards OVER 77.5 (-120)


Kansas City Chiefs Prop Bet Picks

Using odds. is available for action everywhere in the US. is one of our top NFL sportsbooks that you can bet on from anywhere in the USA – online or phone.

Tyreek Hill Receptions UNDER 5.5 (+100)

Sammy Watkins Receptions UNDER 4.5 (-110)

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards OVER 58.5 (-120)

Travis Kelce Receptions OVER 6.5 (-130)

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards OVER 80.5 (-120)

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards OVER 311.5 (-115)

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-130)

Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passes OVER 2.5 (+100)


Patriots vs Chiefs Team Prop Bet Picks

I am using several online sportsbooks to get the best price. Since odds can change daily I would recommend doing a little line shopping. Here are bonus codes to top online sportsbooks. Open an account before the game starts so you can use only the best lines before or during the games.

Best Online Sportsbook Bonus Codes from PropBets.Football

Total Points Patriots OVER 26.5 (-120)

Longest Touchdown either team OVER 47.5 (-115)

Patriots Total Touchdowns OVER 2.5 (-150)

Alternate Game Spread Patriots -2.5 (+155) Bovada




Patriots vs Chiefs Betting Prediction:

A rematch of another thriller! the Pats beat the Chiefs 43-40 in week 6 of the season. See our exclusive PROP BET RESULTS for the week 6 game. Includes player prop results, quarter betting lines, alt lines and more.  The big difference between this game and the last one? Kareem Hunt. He played against the Patriots twice and both times he dominated the game. His ability as a runner and as a receiver left the Patriots defense in a no win situation. Tyreek Hill was one of the top benefituaries of the presence of Hunt as the Pats tried to slow down the run by moving the defensive backs closer to the line. It didn’t work and the Chiefs just ran and passed at will. This time Damien Williams will be running the ball and the Patriots should be able to take him out of the game. That will leave Patrick Mahomes to carry the load and he should get over 350+ passing yards and 3+ touchdowns. The problem will be the interceptions. Without Hunt in the backfield the Pats can take more chances in the secondary. Look for Mahomes to also have 2+ interceptions.

What about the Patriots? I mocked Tom Brady last week and he got even by attacking my wallet. Yes, I was on the Chargers. It took about 2 minutes into the game to know I was wrong and I was saved by in game wagering. I would have lost all of my spread bets if not for being able to bet after the kickoff. If you want to bet live bet on this game. Watch how well the Pats can stop the Chiefs rushing game early. If they can then playoff Andy Reid will show up and the Chiefs will abandon the run and become one dimensional on offense.

I have this game a toss up. I think it will come down to a field goal one way or another. That makes the value bet on the Patriots. As long as I can get 3 or more I am on them. I also have an alternate line bet on them at -2.5 at +155.

Rams vs Saints NFC Prop Bet & Score Prediction

Patriots +3 and Patriots -2.5 (+155), Over 56 points

Score Prediction: Patriots 34 – Chiefs 31

0 comments on "Patriots vs Chiefs AFC Championship Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction"