Cowboys vs Rams Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction 1-12-19
After 9 games of the season, the Cowboys were sitting at just 4-5 and struggling to get anything going on offensive. The Cowboys have gone 7-1 since then, which includes a thrilling 24-22 win over the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Game over the weekend.
This is a team that has also been a very good bet against the spread, going a solid 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. While the trip to LA looks to be a tough one, it is worth noting that Dallas has gone 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 trips there.
The Rams brass spent a lot of money to bring in the talent that they felt could put them over the top this year. With a 13-3 regular season record, it certainly looks like money well spent. However, back to back losses to the Bears and the Eagles leave me with doubts about this team. The Rams were 7-1 SU at home this season, although just 3-3-2 ATS in those games.
- When: Saturday, January 12 at 8:15 PM EST
- Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, LA
- TV: FOX
- Radio: SiriusXM/NFL
- Live Stream: NFL League Pass
- 2018 Divisional Round Betting Odds: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (Total 49)
- Current Live Game Odds from Top Sportsbooks here
- Mostly Cloudy: 13°C/56°F
- Humidity: 86%
- Precipitation: 5%
- Cloud Cover: 71%
- Wind: 2 mph SSE
- Stadium Type: Open
Cowboys vs Rams NFC Divisional Round Betting Trends
- Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
- Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas’s last 12 games on the road
- LA is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- LA is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams’s last 7 games at home
Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview
The Cowboys pulled off a 24-22 win over the Seahawks last week but now go on the road to face a Rams team as a full-touchdown underdog. The Rams ranked 9th in pass DVOA but struggled against the run. Dak Prescott will be without Allen Hurns who is done for the year and Cole Beasley remains questionable with an ankle injury. This looks like another week with Dak looking more like a ball control quarterback who can use his legs to pick up first downs.
Ezekiel Elliott, this is your game. Elliott had a 26 carry, 137 rushing yard game with 1 touchdown last week. He also added 4 receptions for 32 on five targets. The Rams ranked 28th in run DVOA and showed holes in the run defense down the stretch, allowing Wendell Smallwood to score two touchdowns on them in Week 15. Alfred Morris ran for 111 yards and a touchdown on just 16 carries in Week 17. Elliot will be able to pass the hundred yard rushing mark on the ground and still grab 5+ receptions. If the Cowboys are going to win the game it will be because of Elliott.
With Allen Hurns done and Cole Beasley questionable, that should open up more opportunities for Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin and Tavon Austin. Last week Amari Cooper had 7 receptions for 106 yards nine targets. After the Hurns injury Gallup played on 81% of the snaps last week. If Beasley’s status changes to doubtful/out, Gallup is a play to get 6+ targets and 55+ yards. I have no faith in any of the Cowboys tight ends. Jarwin had three-touchdown game in Week 17 and then disappeared last week. The Rams weakness against the rush should set up the deep passing game to Cooper so I will be only looking for under plays on the tight ends.
Cowboys Prop Bet Picks
Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards OVER 97.5 (-118)
- Ezekiel Elliot Rushing Yards OVER 116 (+118)
- Ezekiel Elliot Rushing Yards OVER 126 (+167)
Dak Prescott Rushing Yards OVER 16.5 (-105)
Amari Cooper Receiving Yards OVER 65.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview
Jared Goff struggled down the stretch between Weeks 13-16, compiling a 2 touchdown to 6 interception ratio. He did turn it around in the finale against the 49ers by tossing four touchdowns, but he really struggled against physical defenses. Goff had massive home/road splits this season. At home Goff had a 22:3 touchdown to interception ratio and on the road he had a 10:9 ratio.
Todd Gurley missed the final two games of the season with his knee injury but I’m expecting Gurley to be a full go on Saturday after getting two weeks off. If Gurley is a no go then the Rams will go back to C.J. Anderson. Anderson wasn’t that bad with 20 carries for 167 yards and 23 carries for 132 yards in his second start. The Cowboys ranked 5th in run DVOA so this isn’t a good matchup for Gurley as a rusher even if he does play.
Brandin Cooks has a difficult matchup against Byron Jones, who is a top ranked cornerback. Both Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds have better matchups, facing off against Anthony Brown and Chidobe Awuzie. For the season, Woods out-targeted Cooks 130 to 117. Josh Reynolds finished the season strong, catching two touchdowns against the 49ers in the season finale.
Rams Prop Betting Picks
Jared Goff Passing Yards OVER 278.5 (-115)
Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards UNDER 64.5 (-105)
Cowboys vs Rams Betting Prediction:
The Rams started this season like they were Super Bowl bound. However, like many teams that start off fast a few flaws were exposed later in the season. The Rams offense has trouble with a physical defense and the Rams defense is soft against the run. This fits perfectly into what the Cowboys will bring. They can run Ezekiel Elliott all day and just grind down the Rams defense. That will allow Dak to do what he does well and that is play action passing to Cooper. The Rams offense will be able to score but if you get a couple of hits on Goff, he looked soft. I like the Cowboys to get those hits and upset the Rams. Remember, the Rams were big favorites in last years playoffs but the Falcons came out and shut them down.
Note: I just watched the late season Rams games again and they are not the same team without Cooper Kupp. The money is still going on the Rams so I would wait and get 7.5 points if you can. I would take 7.5 at (-120) over 7 at (-110) but do some line shopping on Saturday.