Colts vs Texans Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction NFL Wild Card Game
Andrew Luck missed the entire 2017 season due to recurring soreness following shoulder surgery, but finished 2018 with 4,593 yards and 39 touchdown passes. T.Y. Hilton benefited from the return of Luck with his fifth 1,000-yard season (1,270) and burned these Texans for nine catches and 199 yards in Week 14. Tight end Eric Ebron had a career-best 13 touchdown catches, including one in each game vs Houston. At running back, Marlon Mack rushed for nine touchdowns and had four 100-yard games. What really made the Colts a playoff team is a defense that did not allow 30 points over the final 10 games.
Deshaun Watson threw for eight touchdowns with zero interceptions and rushed for four more scores over the final six games. DeAndre Hopkins had 115 receptions for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns. Running back Lamar Miller had a combined 82 yards and a TD on 28 carries in both games against the Colts this season. J.J. Watt returned from two injury-plagued seasons to rack up 16 sacks for a defense that ranked third against the run (82.7 yards) but was vulnerable to the pass (260.4).
- When: Saturday, January 5, 2019, 4:35 PM ET
- Where: NRG Stadium
- TV: ESPN, ABC
- Radio: SiriusXM/NFL
- Live Stream: NFL League Pass
- MyBookie.ag 2018 AFC Wild Card Betting Lines: Houston Texans -1.5 (Total 49)
- Clear: 17°C/63°F
- Humidity: 49%
- Precipitation: 0%
- Cloud Cover: 0%
- Wind: 5 mph S
- Stadium Type: Retractable
Colts vs Texans 2018 AFC Wild Card Betting Trends
- Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
- Indianapolis is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games on the road
- Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games at home
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
Andrew Luck goes on the road to face a Texans team that he shredded for 399 yards and two touchdowns just a few weeks ago. Back in Week 4, Luck also torched them for four touchdowns and 464 yards in an overtime loss. The Texans run a funnel defense, ranking 1st in run DVOA but just 18th in pass DVOA.
Marlon Mack didn’t play against the Texans in their first game, but when he met them a few weeks ago, the Texans held him to 33 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Mack also didn’t catch his lone pass target in that game and has not been a factor in the passing game. A running back to take a look at is Nyheim Hines, his pass catching ability fits well into the Texans weakness against pass catching backs. The Texans will need to get to Luck if they are going to slow down the Colts offense but, this will open up the screen pass and Hines has the hands to take advantage of this.
Erib Ebron tied T.Y. Hilton and Dontrelle Inman with six targets last week, and Ebron saw a combined 18 targets in the two prior games versus the Texans. I keep looking for a reason Ebron won’t have a big game and other than injury he should excel in this one. T.Y. Hilton in his two games against the Texans, 4 catches, 115 yards and 9 catches for 199 yards. The only thing he didn’t do was catch a touchdown but I like him to get one in this one.
Other than Ebron & Hilton the problem will be Lucks ability to spread the ball around. Chester Rogers and Ryan Grant have seen their roles decrease over the course of the season, while Zach Pascal and Dontrelle Inman have seen their roles increase. If you are going to play fantasy football and have several lineups in tournaments. Rotate one of these guys on each of your teams.
Colts Prop Bet Picks
Andrew Luck Passing Yards OVER 291.5 (-118)
Marlon Mack Rushing Yards UNDER 52.5 (-105)
T.Y. Hilton Receiving Yards OVER 82.5 (-108)
Eric Ebron Receiving Yards OVER 50.5 (-108)
Nyheim Hines Rushing & Receiving Yards OVER 42.5 (-108)
Houston Texans Betting Preview
Deshaun Watson was held without a passing touchdown last week against the Jaguars for the first time all season, but the Texans won the game. Against the Colts this season, he had two passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown and 375 yards in their first game, but just one touchdown and 267 yards in their last game. The Colts are also a funnel defense, ranking 4th in run DVOA but 20th in pass DVOA.
Lamar Miller plays no role in the passing game, averaging fewer than two receptions per game. That is not going to get the job done in this game unless the Texans somehow get out to a big early lead. In their two games this season, he had 49 yards and no touchdowns on 14 carries in their first game and 33 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries in their second game.
Without Will Fuller and Demaryius Thomas, it’s been all DeAndre Hopkins. last week he had 12 receptions for 147 yards line on 16 targets. Deandre Carter and Vyncint Smith tied for five targets apiece as the next closest players behind Hopkins. Hopkins averaged 10.2 targets per game this season. Keke Coutee could be back for this game, which should not eat into Hopkins targets but will take away from everyone else. Even with Keke back, the only way the Texans can win this game is for Hopkins to have 100+ receiving yards and at least one touchdown. If you are betting on the Texans then you should also bet on Hopkins to go over his props.
Houston Texans Prop Bet Picks
DeShaun Watson Passing Yards OVER 251.5 (-115)
Lamar Miller Rushing Yards UNDER 53.5 (-108)
DeShaun Watson Rushing Yards OVER 35.5 (-115)
DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards OVER 92.5 (-115)
Keke Coutee Receiving Yards OVER 38.5 (-118)
Colts vs Texans Betting Prediction:
Both of these teams defenses are better against the run than the pass. Sometimes it is just that simple. If you want to know who will win the game just ask yourself which of these two quarterbacks will throw for the most yards. My money is on the Colts. I also like the over in the game as both quarterbacks are underacted (Luck as a runner & Watson as a passer). The guy to watch is Keke. If he looks good pregame that should open Hopkins and I would bet the over, if he is not healthy then I would not take action on the total.