Colts vs Chiefs Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction 1-12-19
Indy is clearly playing their best football of the season at just the right time. The Colts closed out the regular season by winning four straight and a blistering nine of their last 10 games overall. More importantly, the Colts have seen their defense steadily improve all season long.
That improved defense was in full display in Indy’s surprisingly dominant 21-7 win over the Houston Texans in their AFC wild card game against their AFC South division rivals on Saturday. Andrew Luck passed for 222 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while running back Marlon Mack rushed for 148 yards and one score on 24 carries. Luck is an MVP candidate this season with 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns. The Colts are solid on both sides of the ball in ranking fifth in scoring (27.1 ppg) and 10th in points allowed (21.5 ppg).
Colts are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Kansas City Chiefs are playing at home where they’ve gone 7-1 SU this season in always difficult Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs lead the league in scoring by averaging 35.3 points per game. Kansas City also has arguably the best quarterback in the game now in second-year signal-caller Patrick Mahomes.
If Luck doesn’t win the MVP it will be because Mahomes does. Patrick Mahomes had 5,097 yards while becoming just the third player in NFL history to throw 50 TD passes in a single season. Lots of skill talent helped out with wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce leading the way. However, the Chiefs got off to a stellar 8-1 start through nine games, but had a trio of losses over their final six games and the offense did not look the same after Kareem Hunt was cut. The Chiefs defense is a weakness and allowed 26.3 points per game defensively.
Colts vs Chiefs NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends
- Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis’s last 8 games
- Kansas City is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
- Kansas City is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games
Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
The Colts get the luxury of going against one of the worst defenses in football. If you are playing DFS then stack Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron and Marlon Mack. This also gives you an idea of what I think will happen on Colts offensive props.
Marlon Mack dominated a better defense last week by rushing 24 times for 148 yards and a touchdown. Playing with a lead almost the whole game meant Nyheim Hines didn’t get many touches. I expect him to get more this week but I still expect the Colts to give the ball to Mack 20+ times rushing as they try to control the clock. I like Mack against the Chief’s 32nd ranked run DVOA, I have him at 100+ rushing yards and at least one rushing touchdown.
Eric Ebron caught a touchdown last week and he should be able to get 60+ receiving yards & another touchdown this week. The Chiefs allowed the second most tight end touchdowns this season. Watch the status of Ryan Grant, who missed last week’s game with a toe injury and that freed up more time for Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal. If he plays that will take away some targets from Rogers & Pascal.
If you think the Chiefs will get out to a big lead and run away with it then Nyheim Hines is a top play as a receiving back. However, I like the Colts to keep the game close and be in a run & control the clock mode in the second half. That leaves me all in on Mack & Ebron to have big games.
Colts Prop Bet Picks
Andrew Luck Passing Yards OVER 305.5 (-112)
Marlin Mack Rushing Yards OVER 76.5 (-115)
Eric Ebron Receiving Yards OVER 46.5 (-112)
Marlin Mack Rush & Receiving Yards OVER 85.5 (-110)
- Prop Betting Tip. If you like a player to have a breakout game then check out the props at BetOnline.ag & Sportsbetting.ag. They both offer SEVERAL props on the same event for better odds. Since I really like Mack I to go over 100+ rushing yards I am making these bets.
Marlin Mack Rushing Yards OVER 103 (+106)
Marlin Mach Rushing Yards OVER 113 (+137)
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
Patrick Mahomes finished the season with a 50 touchdown to 12 interception ratio and now faces a Colts defense that ranked 20th in pass DVOA. The Colts bend but don’t break defense did hold quarterbacks to throw just 21 touchdowns on this seaso which tied for the third fewest in the league. They also held Deshaun Watson to 29/49 for 235 yards, one touchdown and one interception last week while sacking him three times. Obviously this is a much better offense but the Colts defense has shown an ability to get the turnover they need to win games.
Damien Williams and Spencer Ware (if healthy) will split time but both are not on the field at the same time. It hasn’t been since Week 14 against the Ravens where we saw both of them in a game together. Both saw five targets in that game. Williams finished the year with six touchdowns over his final four games. If Ware is back, then the split time should hold down the yardage for both. If Ware is out, then he should get all of the touches but the Colts ranked 4th in run DVOA so this is a better spot as a receiver than as a runner.
Tyreek Hill is a big play threat but the Colts defended the deep-ball well this season. They ranked 22nd in passes of 20+ yards allowed, which fit into the bend but don’t break philosophy. Travis Kelce is my top choice for Chiefs receivers. The Colts allowed a league-high 107 receptions to opposing tight ends. Sammy Watkins may play and if he does that should open things up even more for Kelce as the Colts defense will open up the middle to keep the safeties back to prevent the deep pass.
Chiefs Prop Bet Picks
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards OVER 314.5 (-118)
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards OVER 84.5 (-115)
Colts vs Chiefs Betting Prediction:
If the Chiefs lose there will be a lot of talk about playoff Andy Reid, however he is not the reason I really like the Colts in this one. The loss of Kareem Hunt really hurt this team. He wasn’t just vital to the offense. He also helped provide cover for one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Without him, the Chiefs will not be able to control the football even if they get out to a lead. On the others side, Andrew Luck is a veteran quarterback playing his best football. The ability of the Colts to run the ball and control the clock will be the difference. I am taking the Colts and the points in a close game.