Chargers vs Ravens Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction NFL Wild Card Game
The Ravens were a positive 6-2 SU in games played at home this season, but they were just 3-5 ATS in those games. As the favorite, the Ravens went 4-7 ATS, while going 4-4 O/U in home games. Going on the road is not necessarily a bad thing for the Chargers, as they were better away than they were at home, going 7-1 SU and ATS in their 8 road trips. As the road underdog, the Chargers were 4-1 ATS.
- When: Sunday, January 6 at 1:05 PM EST
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
- TV: CBS
- Radio: SiriusXM/NFL
- Live Stream: NFL League Pass
- AFC Wild Card Game Odds: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (Total 41.5)
- Record: Ravens lead 7-3
- Score: Chargers 20.10 / Ravens 22.30
- Rush Yards: Chargers 91.40 / Ravens 107.60
- Pass Attempts: Chargers 34.90 / Ravens 31.10
- Completion Percentage: Chargers 64.47 / Ravens 62.38
- Passing Yards: Chargers 239.70 / Ravens 198.50
- Total Yards: Chargers 331.1 / Ravens 306.1
- Turnovers: Chargers 1.60 / Ravens 1.30
Chargers at Ravens AFC Wild Card Game Betting Trends
- LA is 37-18 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992
- LA is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992
- Baltimore is 1-0 against the spread versus the Chargers over the last 3 seasons
- Baltimore is 1-0 straight up against the Chargers over the last 3 seasons
- 1 of 1 game in this series have gone Under the Total over the last 3 seasons
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview
The Chargers finished the regular season 12-4, but after 12 straight games of throwing multiple touchdowns, Philip Rivers had a 4:6 touchdown to interception ratio in the final four games. Against the Ravens he passed for just 181 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. It was by far his worst performance of the season. The Ravens rank 3rd in pass DVOA and 6th in run DVOA, so it isn’t a given that the Chargers will be able to run the ball.
In the two games since returning from his knee injury, Gordon had 12 rushes for 41 yards against the Ravens with three receptions, and 10 rushes for 42 yards against the Broncos with three receptions. Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler played when Gordon was out. With Ekeler fully back from his concussion, Jackson likely won’t see the field much in this game. Gordon has not looked fully healthy since returning from injury so I really can’t lean on him here.
Keenan Allen has also been dealing with a hip injury, and his production tailed off in the team’s last two games. In his last two weeks of the season he had 5 receptions for 58 yards and 4 receptions for 64 yards. The Ravens allowed just 21 receiving touchdowns all season, which tied for the third fewest in the league. They also allowed the second lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (80.6) and the fifth fewest passing yards per game to opponents (210). The other options are; Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry. Of them I would take Tyrell Williams and his big play ability. * Henry is out.
Chargers Prop Bet Picks
Antonio Gates Receiving Yards UNDER 15.5 (-115)
Keenan Allen Receiving Yards UNDER 77.5 (-115)
Melvin Gordon Receiving Yards OVER 27.5 (-115)
Tyrell Williams Receiving Yards OVER 27.5 (-115)
Philip Rivers Passing Yards OVER 260.5 (-115)
Philip Rivers Passing Attempts UNDER 34.5 (-115)
Melvin Gordon Rushing & Receiving Yards OVER 83.5 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview
Rookie Lamar Jackson & the Ravens finished 6-1 in their final seven games. Jackson has forced the Ravens to transform into one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. Jackson has yet to throw the ball more than 25 times in a game, and had just a 5:3 touchdown to interception ratio in those starts. On the ground he had four touchdowns in those seven games and had 67 or more rushing yards in all but one of those games. The Chargers rank 10th in both run and pass DVOA so his legs should get as much use as his arm. When these two teams met in Week 16, they held Jackson to 39 rushing yards, his lowest output of all his starts. He ended up with 12 completions on 22 attempts for 204 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.
Gus Edwards is the starter but he is splitting time with Kenneth Dixon. Last week Dixon carried the ball 12 times for 112 yards. Ty Montgomery is back and he could take away a few touches from both of these guys. Edwards is more likely to get the carries in a close low scoring game but it is hard to see any one of them getting more than half of the touches in the game.
The Ravens haven’t passed more than 25 times in game yet with Jackson under center and unless the Ravens are down in the fourth quarter there is no reason to think this game will be any different. Receivers (John Brown, Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead) are all limited by the number of targets available. At tight end the Ravens have the same type of problem with low passing volume and several players in the rotation (Nick Boyle, Mark Andrews, Maxx Williams, Hayden Hurst).
What to do with the Ravens receivers? Bet the under on all of them for receptions. Yes, one will go over but several will go under and many times in prop betting it is not one outcome that I handicap but several possible outcomes. If you can get receiving odds on three or more receivers just bet the under on all of them.
Ravens Prop Bet Picks
John Brown Receiving Yards UNDER 23.5 (-115)
Mark Andrews Receiving Yards UNDER 24.5 (-115)
Michael Crabtree Receiving Yards UNDER 28.5 (-115)
Willie Snead Receiving Yards UNDER 29.5 (-115)
Lamar Jackson Passing Yards UNDER 170.5 (-115)
Lamar Jackson Completions UNDER 15.5 (-115)
Lamar Jackson Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-140)
Gus Edwards Rushing Yards UNDER 60.5 (-115)
Chargers vs Ravens Betting Prediction:
A rematch of a game the Ravens dominated the Chargers in Los Angeles. I know the Ravens won last time but the Chargers are the better team and I am taking them money line. The Chargers defense should be the difference in a close game and I have them getting to Jackson and forcing turnovers (at least one interception & maybe 2). The Ravens are a better team with Jackson at quarterback but they are still to dependent on his legs to win playoff games.