Chargers vs Patriots Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction 1-13-19
We all knew that the Chargers were very good on the offensive side of the football, but their defense showed what it was made of versus the Ravens last Sunday afternoon. They made Lamar Jackson look like the rookie he is for most of that game, and at one point had the Ravens passing offense held to -2 yards just before half-time.
The Chargers have only beaten the Patriots once in their last 9 visits to Foxboro. They have also won just 1 of the last 8 overall and have only covered the spread once in their last 5 meetings. However, this team is now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Patriots went a perfect 8-0 (6-2 ATS) in the regular season at home. It was not a smooth sailing for the Pats in the second half of the season going on a stretch where they lost 3 of 5. They did close out the season with back to back wins but those came against two of the lesser teams in the NFL in the Jets and Bills.
- When: Sunday, January 13 at 1:05 PM EST
- Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro
- TV: CBS
- Radio: SiriusXM/NFL
- Live Stream: NFL League Pass
- 2018 Divisional Round Lines: New England Patriots -4 (Total 46.5)
- See Live Betting Lines from Top Sportsbooks here
- Snow Showers: -2°C/28°F
- Humidity: 59%
- Precipitation: 47%
- Cloud Cover: 84%
- Wind: 9 mph NNE
- Stadium Type: Open
Chargers vs Patriots AFC Divisional Round Betting Trends
- LA is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- LA is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers’s last 5 games
- New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
- New England is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England’s last 9 games
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview
The Chargers beat the Ravens 23-17 to move on to the next round, but Rivers now has to face nemesis Tom Brady. Rivers is 0-7 against Brady lifetime, including the playoffs. Rivers struggled down the stretch, compiling a 4 touchdown to 6 interception ratio over the team’s final four games. Two of those games were against legit defenses in the Ravens and Broncos, but the other two were against the weak defenses of the Bengals and Chiefs. Against the Ravens this time he went 22/32 for a season-low 160 yards and with no touchdowns or interceptions. The thing in his favor this week is he is going against an average defense instead of one of the NFL’s best.
Melvin Gordon continues to play with his knee injury, but there are some serious concerns. Last week, he was out-snapped 39 to 32 by backup Austin Ekeler. Gordon did have 17 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown. Ekeler out-targeted Gordon 4 to 1 in the passing game. The Patriots rank 19th in run DVOA so this is a game that Gordon has to play if the Chargers are going to win.
Keenan Allen looks like he will draw a tough matchup in corner JC Jackson who shut down JuJu Smith-Schuster a few weeks ago to a 4 catch, 40 yard and no touchdowns on 10 targets game. The Williams brothers will have to come up with at least on big play for the Chargers to force the Pats to respect the passing game. I like the Williams over on yardage props but not on receptions. The guy to watch is Hunter Henry. He’s less than a year removed from ACL surgery but he should be in a good matchup and the Chargers will need him.
The Chargers having the lowest team total this weekend so Las Vegas thinks the Pats defense should be able to contain the Chargers offense. Melvin Gordon is hurt and Philip Rivers has struggled against Brady and the Patriots historically. Everything, including the early start time and the possibility of snow points to a Chargers debacle.
Chargers Prop Bet Picks
New England Patriots Betting Preview
Tom Brady goes against a Chargers defense that ranked 10th in pass and run DVOA. Lets face it, Tom Brady looked old this season and the lack of a deep passing arm can hurt the Pats against a good Chargers defense. Add in the possibility of some strong winds to the noodle arm Brady now has and you have a game that could be one of the lower scoring games of the weekend.
Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, James White and James Develin all get touches for the Pats. Michel is the better rusher and White is the better receiver. White also has a history of big games in the playoffs. I think that trust will get him more touches than Michel in this game, especially late in the game if it is close.
The Pats receiver corp is weak at best. With no Josh Gordon and a shell of Rob Gronkowski who caught four total passes over his final three games. Julian Edelman would be the go to guy but he has a tough matchup in the slot against Desmond King, who was named AP All-Pro First Team. Chris Hogan did see a team-high 11 targets in the team’s finale against the Jets. Yes, he had a quiet season but Hogan reminds me of that old song, “You’re all I got tonight”. Phillip Dorsett may get a few targets if the Pats are behind and have to throw the ball in the fourth quarter.
Patriots Prop Bet Picks
Chargers vs Patriots Prediction:
The Patriots and Steelers are both on the decline. The Pats made the playoffs this year because they have a top coach and they play in the worst division in football. The Chargers play in the best division but a Wild Card finish places them on the road for the second straight week. I feel uneasy about this pick but I have to go with the better talent. If you took the team names off of the players and just evaluated the talent on the field. The Chargers are the better team. Rivers looks like he is aging and has lost some of his arm strength, but so does Brady. The guy or guys who will decide this game are Gordon and Ekler. If Gordon is health (or shoots up enough to feel healthy) then I like him to have a monster day and be the difference in the game. If he is not able to go, then I will still lean to the Chargers to cover but not win the game. My pick is based on Gordon starting the game.