NFL Live Betting Super Bowl 2015
I have already published my predicted score for the Super Bowl and the Prop Bets that I will be wagering on before the game. The next Super Bowl Betting strategy is on the newest and fastest growing area of sports betting. Live Sports Betting. I will break down how I think the game will unfold and what Live Bets I will be looking to make. The Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots are both successful teams and as such they will remain true to the game strategies that got them to the Super Bowl. My job, and it is how I make a living. Is to use these patterns to make money wagering on the outcome of the game, a quarter, a drive, a play, and prop bets on individual players. First, an overview of Live Sports Betting and then my NFL Live Betting Strategy for the Super Bowl.
A brief overview of live sports betting
What is Live Betting?
The traditional sports betting options are sides, totals, and prop bets. Live sports betting contains the same bets but with the opportunity to bet all game long. Prior to live betting most bets would be made before the game with some limited offers at the end of each quarter or half time. Live betting allows players to bet with odds updated after every play.
Bettors will be able to wager on the outcome of a drive, or individual play, and have a host of other propositions offered by online sportsbooks. Of course the more traditional forms of way wagering, such as point spreads and totals will be updated during the game.
Betting on the outcome of a drive, like will the Patriots score a touchdown on this series will refresh after each play with updated odds. If the quarterback gets sacked for a 6 yard loss, making it 2nd and 16, the odds will increase. This is just one of the bets offered on a typical live betting menu during an NFL game.
Why Live Betting
Live betting offers players a chance to break the game down to individual plays or drives instead of placing a bet at the beginning of the game and watching helplessly as the bet goes bad.
Live betting increases the action. Why wait 3 or 4 hours it takes to watch a full NFL Game. Proposition bets on a drive or bets on each individual play will be back into your account in a few seconds once your bet ends.
If you choose the wrong side and it is obvious in the first half. Live betting allows you to jump back in the game.
If you notice something you can take advantage of it. Is a safety getting beaten but the receiver dropped the pass? Then you can expect the team to throw deep again and you can bet on the receiver. Did a teams best run stopper just get hurt? You can make a prop bet on the running back rushing yard totals. If you are going to watch the game, then become a part of the action.
Types of Live Betting available for the Super Bowl
Point Spreads – This is the most popular bet on football. Wager on a team covering a given point spread. For example, if the New England Patriots were given a spread of +3.5 in the Super Bowl, they’d need to lose by less than three points or win the game in order for their bettors to win.
Money Line Bets – With a money line (straight-up) bet, you’re only wagering on which team will win the Super Bowl. However, there’s always a favorite so odds are attached to each team to keep betting equal on both sides. For example, if the Seattle Seahawks were the underdog, you might win $2.20 for every $1 wagered; meanwhile, those betting on the favorite would get $1.60 for every $1 bet. With this years nearly even odds. Wait until a team takes the lead then the other side should be plus on the money line.
Over/Unders – Wagering on the combined score of both teams. So if the over/under on the game was 47.5, you could either bet on the two teams scoring more or less than this amount.
Prop Bets – The number of prop bets is increasing every year. For example; on Tom Brady you can bet on the number of passing yards, number of touchdowns, interceptions, and many more. The same is true of Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and almost every player on the field. There are also team prop bets on field goals, sacks, penalties, turnovers, and more prop bets added everyday. These prop bets will be updated during the game. See my Katy Perry Prop Bet example.
Super Bowl Live Betting Strategy
I have been using live betting (in play betting) to make money on the NFL. In fact, I find that live betting is easier to do than traditional betting before the game. If I am going to watch the game, then live betting allows me to adjust to injuries and my knowledge of the team and the coaching staff.
The First Half of the Super Bowl
How to get started. I will be making bets before the game (See my Super Bowl Score Prediction), but I will be setting aside 50% of my game bankroll for bets made during the game. The Patriots are a slight favorite (-1) for the game. This mean that all of the key numbers (3,4,6,7) are not available. In my prediction I have the Patriots getting an early lead. Looking at the history of both New England and Seattle it is far more likely that the Patriots will jump out to a touchdown lead than the Seahawks. However, this strategy works for either team. Based on the live game odds of previous NFL games. If a team jumps out to a touchdown lead the odds should adjust by about 4 points in the first quarter. Not enough for me. I fully expect one team to be up by 10 points in the first half. Again, it does not matter which team it is. In the Green Bay vs Seattle game when the Packers went up 13-0. The Live Betting Lines had the Seahawks at +7.5 points. When the Packers went up 16-0, the lines went to Seahawks +12.5. The lines increased more than the 3 additional points because it was later in the game. It is not just the number of points a team trails by but also the amount of time for the team to make a comeback.
Why will I jump on either side once all of my key numbers are met? These two teams have a history of making comebacks. Just look at the second half of the Packers vs Seahawks or the Ravens vs Patriots. These teams make the best offensive second half adjustments in football. The Seahawks tend to be very conservative in the first half and open things up if needed in the second half. Take a look at the last minute win the Seahawks had against the Panthers during the regular season. Both teams think they can win on the final drive of a game and both are right.
KEY NFL MARGIN OF VICTORY NUMBERS
As you can see from this chart containing the margin of victory for the last 10 years of NFL games. 27.9% of games are decided by 3 points or less. 34.6% by 4 points or less. 45.1% by 6 points of less and 56.6% by a touchdown or less. These are for all games. Add in two exceptional quarterbacks and the likelyhood of a close game are magnafied. Any chance, and I mean any chance I get to take either side at +7.5 or more. I will make the bet. This is the strategy I used for the NFC Championship game and it rewarded me with the Packers +8.5 and the Seahawks at +7.5.
MARSHAWN LYNCH RUSHING YARDS
Most people don’t think of prop bets as part of Live Sports Betting but, I love these bets. Currently the total rushing yards for Marshawn Lynch according to Bovada.lv is 92.5 yards with the over at -125. I like the over for the game but I will be waiting to bet on it. The chart below contains part of the reason. What most people do not understand about odds is it has nothing to do with what the bookmaker thinks will happen. He is trying to guess what will get bets on both sides. Most people do no research so they will just double what happened in the first half. A look at his history (and last week) show that Lynch is a far better runner in the second half than the first half. My bet will be made toward the end of the second quarter when the second half and adjusted game prop bets are available. Advice, have you computer or phone ready for the second half prop bets with about 4 minutes to go in the first half. If you are looking at a prop bet on touchdowns. Wait until the middle of the third quarter when he becomes the battering ram for the Seahawks
TOTAL PASSING YARDS RUSSELL WILSON
Russel has been a slow starter this year? Not if you look at the passing yards. Yes, he has toned down the passing yards in the second half because Seattle was ahead. That is what is so misleading just looking at the numbers by quarter. In the second half the Seahawks will open it up if they are behind. The current odds from Bovada.lv for Russell Wilson passing yards in the Super Bowl are 219.5 yards at -125 for the over. Since I expect the Seahawks to open it up because they are trailing at the half you might think I would bet the over. No, I will be taking the under. I expect the Seahawks to lean on Lynch in the second half. Even when they are trailing. Russel might get the second half touchdown passes but Lynch will be the second half weapon of choice for Seattle. I don’t expect Wilson to break 200 yards for the game. I will be betting the under before the game and look for Wilson to make a couple of passes in the second quarter to drive up his total yards above the 219.5 currently offered. If it does go up then I will be betting more on the under. I hope Wilson does complete a few long passes in the second quarter so I can jump on the adjusted line and hammer the under.
DOUG BALDWIN TOUCHDOWN
This is a bet I will make at halftime. If Seattle Wide Receiver Doug Baldwin does not score a TD in the first half I will take him to get a touchdown in the second half. The Seahawks love to run Lynch in the second half of games and most people will be betting on him to get the touchdowns. But, I like the play action to Lynch once the Seahawks are inside the Patriots 20 yard line. Look at his numbers this year. For this bet, have your online sportsbook account open and ready to make a fast bet. In the second half with the Seahawks in the Patriot red zone, jump on Baldwin to score. Before the game Bovada.lv has a Baldwin touchdown at +170.
LIVE SPORTS BETTING TIPS
First thing to do is have at least one online sportsbook. Actually I recommend that you have more than one. Different sportsbooks have different odds on the same event. Why take the Patriots +5 when you can get them at +6? Also, not every book offers the same prop bets. There are times when a bookmakers website may be slow and you don’t want to miss a bet while you are waiting for the site to reload. If you are new to a sportsbook there are bonus offers to get you started. Why not use their money to build your bankroll?