Saints vs Cowboys NFL Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction

When: Thursday, 8:20 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington
TV: Fox/NFL Network
Radio: SiriusXM/NFL
Live Stream: NFL League Pass
NFL Week 13 Odds: New Orleans Saints -7.5 (Total 53)
Clear: 15°C/59°F
Humidity: 72%
Precipitation: 4%
Cloud Cover: 3%
Wind: 5 mph SW
Stadium Type: Retractable

Saints vs Cowboys 13 Betting Trends

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas
Underdog is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 6 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’s last 6 games

 

Cowboys vs Saints Last Meeting

In Week 4 of the 2015 season, the Saints beat the Cowboys 26-20 in overtime. Drew Brees hit C.J. Spiller with a short pass that the running back turned into an 80-yard touchdown on the second play of overtime. Brees completed 33 of 41 throws for 359 yards and two TDs. Mark Ingram gained 128 yards from scrimmage.

New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

Drew Brees has been know for his home/road splits and he has not been as good on the road. This season in five road games he has nine touchdowns and one interception with just one 300-yard passing game. At home he has twenty touchdowns with one interceptions and he has gone over 300 passing yards four times. This week he will be facing a Cowboys team have been good against the run but terrible against the pass. At running back the Saints are back to a time share between Kamara and Ingram. It has been about 60/40 with Kamara getting a slight majority of touches. The running game might take a back seat to the passing game as the Cowboys rank well in run DVOA.  I like the pass catching upside of Kamara this week with Ingram coming in to vulture touchdowns. At receiver Tre’Quan Smith might play depending on his foot injury. Michael Thomas didn’t have a big game against the Eagles with a four catch for thirty-eight yards and no touchdowns performance. I like him here as I expect 8+ targets and at least one pass play of 25+ yards. Tight end Dan Arnold had four catches for fourty-five yards and one touchdown against Philadelphia. However, I still prefer Ben Watson against the Cowboys. If Tre’Quan Smith plays I like him to get 6+ targets and 70+ yards.

Saints Prop Betting Picks

Using Fanduel Lines

Drew Brees Passing Yards Over 298.5 (-110)

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Over 88.5 (-110)

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Over 36.5 (-134)

Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview

Yes, Dak Prescott now has a deep threat and that has helped opening up the passing game. One thing that many people have missed about his all around performance is that he has also rushed for touchdowns in five of his last six games. Last week he threw for 289 passing yards and he will need to do that again if the Cowboys are going to have a chance to win against a high powered Saints offense. The Cowboys also happen to have one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ezekiel Elliott has proven he can catch the ball which leaves him on the field for more touches. This season he is averaging over four receptions per game and that will be important because the Saints have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season (805). They are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry, second lowest in the NFL. The way to attack the Saints is in the air and Elliot should get 5+ receptions Thursday night. At receiver, Amari Cooper had a team high nine targets and ended up with 8 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. Yes, I know Cooper routinely disappeared in the Raiders offense but I like him to have another 100+ receiving yards against a Saints team that can give up the big pass play. The rest of the Cowboy receivers will be a crap shoot as to who breaks free on a play.

The Cowboys offense comes down to Elliott and Cooper. I like that both will get plenty of touches if it is a close game or a blowout.

Cowboys Prop Bet Picks

Using Fanduel Lines

Amari Cooper Receiving Yards Over 68.5 (-115)

Dak Prescott Completions Over 20.5 (-140)

Saints vs Cowboys Betting Prediction

The Cowboys are 7.5 point home dogs? With the way the Saints have been beating teams (48-7 over the Eagles) I can see why the betting public still backs them on the road by more than a touchdown. However, I do not. I like the Cowboys offense to shine tonight with Ezekiel Elliot showing off his talent on prime time. This game should be another high scoring prime time game and the game will come down to the last possession. In an upset I have the Cowboys getting a close win and keeping their playoff hopes alive.

Score Prediction:

Cowboys 30 – Saints 27

I am betting half on the Cowboys plus 7.5 and half on the Cowboys on the money line.