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Falcons at Saints Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction

Falcons at Saints Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction

When: Thursday, 8:20 PM ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
TV: NBC
Radio: SiriusXM/NFL
Live Stream: NFL League Pass
NFL Week 12 Odds: New Orleans Saints -13 (Total 60)

Falcons vs Saints NFL Week 12 Betting Trends

Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings
Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans
Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings
Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New Orleans
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans’s last 10 games at home

Note: I am using betting odds from Sportsbetting.ag. That is my prefered sportsbook for games that I believe will be high scoring. The reason is Sportsbetting.ag allows me to make several bets on the same player. An example is Julio Jones today

Julio Jones Receiving Yards 111+ (100)

Julio Jones Receiving Yards 126+ (129)

As you can see I am betting on Jones to 111+ (ties win) and I can also bet on him to get at least +126. For all of the bets listed below there are usually four or five betting options. If you want to take a look at today’s game & prop betting odds.
NFL Game & Prop Betting Odds from Sportsbetting.ag

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Matt Ryan last week against the Cowboys, threw for 291 yards and a touchdown. This broke Ryan’s four-game streak of 300+ yards. With a negative game script expected for the Falcons as the Saints funnel defense is better against the run than the pass. This will put the ball in Ryan’s hands to win the game. Expect a  big game from him no matter what the score is.

An inconsistent running game makes it hard to go with Tevin Coleman today. Coleman is averaging roughly 11 carries per game this season and hasn’t topped more than five receptions in a game. Add to  that, Ito Smith is taking carries away in a 60/40 split and Coleman rushing yardage is a pass today.

The touchdown maker Julio Jones will add to his total today. He has three straight games with a touchdown and should do it again today. I know he will be covered by Lattimore but the Saints DB hasn’t been as good this year so a 100 receiving yards and 1+ touchdowns is predicted today. Outside of Jones, who else on the Falcons will have a big game? Of Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper and Calvin Ridley. My pick would be Hooper because of his target count over his last six games: 12, 10, 4, 3, 11 and 8. If you are looking for someone who has a big upside on yards it would be Calvin Ridley going against a weak Saints secondary.

Falcons Prop Bet Picks

Matt Ryan Passing Yards 341+ (+110)

Matt Ryan Passing Yards 361+ (+129)

Matt Ryan Passing Yards 381+ (+150)

Matt Ryan Passing Touchdowns 3+ (+135)

Julio Jones Receiving Yards 111+ (100)

Julio Jones Receiving Yards 126+ (129)

Austin Hooper Receptions 5+ (-141)

Austin Hooper Receptions 6+ (+107)

Austin Hooper Receptions 7+ (+170)

Calvin Ridley Receiving Yards 71+ (+112)

New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

The Saints are hot and at home on Thanksgiving Day? The house will be full and it will be a party in New Orleans. The Saints have scored 45 or more points in three straight games and get a Falcons defense that has struggled all season. Drew Brees is playing with video game numbers like his 25 touchdown to one interception ratio this season. Brees will get 350+ passing yards and 2+ touchdowns again today.

At running back, Mark Ingram has now rushed for back-to-back 100 yard games and is coming off a two-touchdown performance. Ingram and Alvin Kamara should both have a big game. The Falcons have been torched by running backs all season and just allowed Ezekiel Elliott to rack up 201 all-purpose yards on them. There’s enough room here for both Ingram and Kamara to hit the over on prop bets.

What about Michael Thomas? He will get the targets and the Falcons secondary makes enough mistakes that he will have at least one 40+ yard play. Tre’Quan Smith is questionable and has missed both Monday and Tuesday practices. Smith had 10 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Just what Brees needs, another top receiver to throw to. If he is out then Thomas should get 11+ targets.

Saints Prop Bet Picks

Drew Brees Passing Yards 321+ (-130)

Drew Brees Passing Yards 341+ (-103)

Drew Brees Passing Yards 361+ (+123)

Drew Brees Completions 27+ (-101)

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards 101+ (-114)

Mark Ingram Rushing Yards 61+ (-108)

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards 64+ (-114)

Falcons vs Saints Score Prediction

 Ryan is averaging 330.6 passing yards per game this season, the highest mark in the NFL, and is the only player in the league averaging 300+ passing yards and completing at least 70 percent of his passes (71.1 percent). Last week, Drew Brees threw for 363 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 153.2 passer rating. The Saints have scored at least 40 points in six games this season, the most by a team in its first 10 games of a season in NFL history. Where am I going with this? The over…maybe not 105 points but over 70 is certainly doable.

Falcons vs Saints Score Prediction

Saints 41 – Falcons 31

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