NFL Betting Preview Kansas City at Denver

When: 8:15 PM ET, Monday, October 1, 2018
Where: Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. Betting Line:: Chiefs -4.5. Total: 54.5

I am using lines for the game pick & prop bet picks. You can see our reviews of sportsbook here.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0): Patrick Mahomes threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the second quarter in a 38-27 home win over San Francisco. The Chiefs offense has scored at least 38 points in all three games this season. Tight end Travis Kelce had eight catches for 114 yards. Kareem Hunt, who led the league in rushing as a rookie in 2017, is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry but did record a pair of 1-yard TD runs. However, the Chiefs defense ranks last in yards allowed (474) and 30th in points surrendered (30.7).

Denver Broncos (2-1): Case Keenum has been intercepted five times so far this season. Emmanuel Sanders is the team’s leading receiver with 19 receptions and Demaryius Thomas has 16. Running backs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, who have combined for 350 yards rushing yards. Denver will need to generate pressure against Mahomes Miller and Von Miller who is tied for the NFL lead with four sacks is the man they need to make a few big plays

The charts below are from our EXCLUSIVE Prop Bet Database with over 10,000 player prop bet results. The odds in the charts are from Bovada sportsbook.

Chiefs vs Broncos Quarterback Prop Bet Preview & Picks

The Chiefs are 1st in pass DVOA and the Broncos currently rank 19th in pass DVOA and have allowed the following opposing quarterback performances:

Joe Flacco – 25/40, 277 yards, 1 touchdown
Russell Wilson – 19/33, 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
Derek Carr – 29/32, 288 yards, 1 touchdown

The Broncos defense has just five sacks on the year, tied for 21st in the NFL, and have 15 quarterback hits, tied for 15th in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 30th in both pass and run DVOA. The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 1,088 yards in three games, tied for most in the NFL. If there was a game for Case Keenum to put up big numbers this is it.

Patrick Mahomes passing yards over 296½ (-115)

Patrick Mahomes TD passes under 2½ (-120)

Patrick Mahomes pass attempts under 35½ (-115)

Case Keenum passing yards over 267½ (-115)

Patrick Mahomes Prop Bet Results

Case Keenum Prop Bet Results

Chiefs vs Broncos Running Back Prop Bet Preview & Picks

Kareem Hunt had 18 carries but didn’t catch his lone target and has been non-existent in the passing game. As you can see from his prop bet results below, he has been a strong under play despite the high scoring Kansas City offense. The Broncos have three running backs in the rotation with; Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker. Freeman has scored a rushing touchdowns in back-to-back games but hasn’t seen more than his 15 touches from Week 1. There is hope this week with the Chiefs terrible run defense and a Broncos offense that would like to use ball control to slow down the Chiefs offense.

Kareem Hunt rushing yards under 62½ (-115)

Royce Freeman scores a rushing TD (+135)

Philip Lindsay rush+receiving yards over 72½ (-120)

Kareem Hunt Prop Bet Results

Broncos Running Back Prop Bet Results

Chiefs vs Broncos Wide Receiver Prop Bet Preview & Picks

The Chiefs target three players in the passing game (Kelce, Watkins, Hill). What stands out so far this season is that Sammy Watkins has been over performing on his prop bets. The Broncos Emmanuel Sanders (24 targets) and Demaryius Thomas (26 targets) remain the focal point of the Denver offense, Sanders has nearly twice as many receiving yards as Thomas (269 to 144).

Sammy Watkins pass receptions over 4½ (+105)

Sammy Watkins receiving yards over 54½ (-115)

Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards over 74½ (-115)

Demaryius Thomas pass receptions over 5½ (-120)

Tyreek Hill longest rec over 35½ yards (-115)

Chiefs Wide Receiver Prop Bet Results

Broncos Wide Receiver Prop Bet Results

Chiefs vs Broncos Tight End Prop Bet Preview & Picks

Taking a look at the charts below it is obvious that the Broncos use the tight end more as a blocker and the Chiefs as a receiver. In fact, if you play daily fantasy football I would take Kelce on my team tonight. I know that Butt is out for Denver and that will increase his playing time but Sutton is still not a factor in the passing game.

Travis Kelce pass receptions over 5½ (-140)

Travis Kelce receiving yards over 75½ (-125)

Courtland Sutton receiving yards under 36½ (-115)

Chiefs Tight End Prop Bet Results

Broncos Tight End Prop Bet Results

Chiefs vs Broncos Pick & Score Prediction:

This should be a fun game to watch as both teams should be able to score. The over at is currently at 53.5 points and while that may seem high. As we have seen in games like the Browns vs Raiders, the new rules have made defenses gun shy. The Chiefs will be able to score and the Broncos will be able to put together drives with a balanced passing and rushing attack. I expect both teams to score over 24 points which should put this game over the total. I am not taking a side in the game.

Pick: OVER 53.5

Score Prediction: Chiefs 34 – Broncos 31