NFL Prop Betting Predictions

2018 NFL Week 4 Prop Bet Predictions

I am using the prop betting odds from several sportsbooks. I do this because line shopping is a must.

For consistency the Prop Bet Database is Bovada lines.

See 2018 NFL Player Prop Betting Stats

When reading the prop betting results. The light red is a bet that did not cover and the green means it did cover. For simplicity I set the results to “Over” bets so I can get a quick reference to see if the player is over or under performing. If I see all green results like I have for Russell Wilson rushing yardage then I know the bet has gone over every time. If I see a lot of red then I know the under bet has been covering.

Prop Bet Tip

Prop bets have lower limits and one way around this is to make several similar prop bets. Here I have three different bets that allow me to triple my betting limit.

Ryan Tannehill Prop Bet Advice

Quarterbacks vs the New England Patriots this season

Deshaun Watson: 17/34 for 176 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Blake Bortles: 29/45 for 376 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception
Matthew Stafford: 27/36 for 262 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

So you might think he is a good over pick on prop bets. However, He’s only attempted 75 passes through three games, which is the lowest in the NFL (the next closest team is the Titans with 81).


Ryan Tannehill pass attempts under 33½ (+115)

Frank Gore rushing yards over 28½ (-110)

Rob Gronkowski scores a receiving TD YES (+115)

Deshaun Watson passing yards under 263½ (+100)

Dak Prescott passing yards under 192½ (-105)

Ryan Fitzpatrick Prop Bet Results

Ryan Fitzpatrick prop betting results shows he has been a money player. Take a look a the full 2018 season in our exclusive prop betting database.

Morning games.

From Bovada

Total Receiving Yards – A.J. Green (CIN) OVER 82.5 (-125)

Total Receiving Yards – Julio Jones (ATL) OVER 99.5 (-125)

Total Passing Attempts In The Game – Andy Dalton (CIN) OVER 36.5 (-125)

Total Receiving Yards – Allen Robinson (CHI) OVER 67.5 (-125)

Total Passing Yards – Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) OVER 252.5 (-125)

Total Interceptions Thrown – Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) OVER 1 (-125) – hint one would be a push

Total Touchdown Passes – Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) OVER 1.5 (+125)

Total Rushing Yards – Josh Allen (BUF) OVER 30.5 (-125)

Total Rushing And Receiving Yards – Aaron Jones (GB) OVER 44.5 (-115)

Total Receptions – Geronimo Allison (GB) OVER 4 (-115)

Chris Carson prop betting advice

Chris Carson was given 32 carries last week for 102 yards and a touchdown. Carson out-carried Rashaad Penny 32 to 3. Penny did have a fumble so it’s possible the coaching staff benched Penny because of that and it led to Carson getting a massive workload. Expect the Seahawks to give the ball to Carson as much as possible to keep Russell Wilson alive this season.

Baker Mayfield prop betting advivce

Tthe Raiders have been awful on defense to start the season and are among the bottom five in both pass and run DVOA. Mayfield went 17/23 with 201 yards in relief of Taylor last week. The key here is they were behind when he came in. This week they will be going against a defense that can be run on and I expect the Browns to lean on the running game and give Mayfield a good play action game plan. This will mean fewer attempts and yards than most people think.

Afternoon games from Bovada

Total Receiving Yards – Will Dissly (SEA) OVER 32.5 (-125)

Total Rushing Yards – Chris Carson (SEA) 59.5 (-125)

Total Passing Yards – Baker Mayfield (CLE) UNDER 257.5 (-105)

Total Passing Attempts in the game – Baker Mayfield (CLE) UNDER 35.5 (-105)

Total Receiving Yards – Sterling Shepard (NYG) OVER 60.5 (-125)

Total Passing Yards – Eli Manning (NYG) UNDER 280.5 (-105)

Total Completions – Drew Brees (NO) OVER 26.5 (-125)