Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
NFL Wild Card Game
When: 4:35 PM ET, Saturday, January 6, 2018
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Betting Line: Chiefs -9
Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs
Game & Prop Betting Preview
The Wild Card weekend gets underway in Kansas City with the Chiefs a heavy favorite at home. If you are playing daily fantasy football or making prop bets there will be plenty of action this weekend. If you are not to familiar with player prop betting then you should look at it like you would an over / under (total) bet. I will be referencing the players 2017 Bovada player prop betting results. Take Alex Smith as an example. For the 2017 season on all player prop bets offered he went (43-37-2) to the over. For Smith this means that Bovada posted 82 prop betting lines during the 2017 NFL season and he went over the posted line on 43 bets. Below you can see the season prop bet odds and results for all of the players. Of course I will also have a game betting pick and score prediction.
A typical NFL game will have over 70 betting lines posted. Of course the familiar side and game point total are available. However, there is a lot more than those bets. There will typically be 35+ player prop bets along with field goal, interceptions, sacks and alternative lines. This will be true of every playoff game and when we get to the Super Bowl there will be hundreds of prop bets available. I usually end up with around ten betting picks on an NFL game. You can see the current Bovada NFL lines here.
Titans vs Chiefs Betting Trends
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee’s last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City’s last 8 games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Marcus Mariota had a slight lean to the under on passing props from Bovada sportsbook. Overall in 2017 he went (36-40-1). He was really held down by his lack of touchdowns. He went just (3-12) on the over on touchdown prop bets. In this game he has a good matchup with a Kansas City defense that can give up the big play in the passing game. With the vulnerability of the Titans pass defense it looks like the Titans will need to score 20+ points to have a chance to win and Mariota should benefit from the need to push the ball downfield. However, when it comes to touchdown production do not look for him to pass for one but he maybe a better bet to run for a touchdown.
Derrick Henry had a slight lean to the under on rushing yardage props from Bovada sportsbook. If you had bet the over on him this season you would have gone just (2-3) as he did not have many posted odds because DeMarco Murray was starting. He did cover the under on rushing yardage prop bets in week 14 and 15 of the season. While the Titans might want to run him, the Chiefs should be ready to do everything they can to make the Titans win the game by passing. I do not expect a big day from Henry.
Walker led the Titans with 74 catches on 111 targets with 807 receiving yards. He should be in play for a high number of targets as the Titans will look to him to get short passes in a ball control offense. I don’t see a lot of receiving yards but he is in play for an over on prop betting receptions.
Rishard Matthews had a slight lean to the over on receiving props from Bovada sportsbook. Overall in 2017 he went (15-11) to the over on receiving prop bets. On receiving yards prop bets he was (8-5) to the over and on receptions he went (7-6) to the over. This is a good matchup for him as he will not be covered by Marcus Peters and since I expect the Chiefs to be able to stop the Titans from running the ball he should receive 9+ targets in this game. Look for him to go over in both yardage and reception prop bets.
NFL Prop Betting Tips
Shop the lines. Betting odds & lines vary a lot from one sportsbook to another. It is not uncommon to see a quarterback yardage total of 250.5 at one sportsbook and 257.5 at another. The odds also vary depending on how much money has already been bet. There is nothing worse than losing a bet you could have won if you had just taken 5 minutes to line shop.
Use all of your bonus offers. You most likely know about the welcome bonus and there is an opportunity to leverage your betting while you line shop by opening accounts at several different sportsbooks and taking full advantage of the welcome bonus at each one. There is also another way to add to your bonus total. The refer a friend bonus. You open an account at sportsbook Bovada and your friend opens an account at Sportsbetting.ag. Then you refer each other and collect the refer-a-freind bonus offer.
Here are 5 online sportsbooks to get you started.
The Titans have been more vulnerable to the pass than the run all year. They allowed 27 touchdown passes, which ranked among the bottom ten teams in the NFL for the season. While Alex Smith finished the 2017 by going over the total on prop bets (43-37-2). The prop betting results did vary widely. Interceptions were what you would expect from a cautious Alex Smith and the over covered only 4 out of 15 times. What may surprise some people is that his passing yards prop bets went (11-4) to the over and he also went (9-6) to the over on rushing yards. If you were in a fantasy league that rewarded yardage over touchdowns then Smith would have been a good quarterback to have. The rest of the prop bet results were (9-6) to the over on completions, (5-)2 to the over on attempts, and he went (5-8-2) to the over on touchdown passes. With a good matchup against a a weak Titans secondary and Alex Smiths ability to go over the total on passing yardage, this looks like a prime spot for an over prop bet.
The Titans have allowed just 89 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry on the season. That ranks fourth best in the league. The Titans also allowed an NFL low five rushing touchdowns. Karrem Hunt had a slight lean to the under overall on all 2017 props from Bovada sportsbook. Overall in 2017 he went the over was (20-23-4). He was very streaky when it came to the rushing yards prop. He started out the season going over the number 5 times and then he went under the posted number 7 straight times. The last 3 weeks of the season when Andy Reid stopped the play calling, Kareem Hunt once again went over the total on rushing yardage prop bets 3 straight weeks. On receptions prop bets he was (5-5-4), on receiving yards he went (6-8) on over prop bets. The four times that a combined rushing and receiving yards prop bet was posted he managed to go over the total at a (1-3) pace. One big advantage he has this week is that the Titans rank 31st in DVOA to pass receiving backs and with Alex Smith in love with the check down pass this is a good spot for Hunt to get a lot of targets and receptions.
Travis Kelce in 2017 prop bets from Bovada sportsbook had a slight lean to the over going (16-13-1) on posted prop betting lines. The over went (8-7) on receiving yards and (8-6-1) on receptions. Tennessee ranks 24th in DVOA against the tight end position. With the Titans vulnerable to the passing game look for the Chiefs to air it out with Kelce benefiting but, I like him for the over on receptions not yardage as Alex Smith loves the short pass in big games.
Tyreek Hill is one of my favorite yardage over plays this weekend. Tyreek Hill 2017 prop betting results from Bovada sportsbook had him a slight lean to the over going (15-12-3). On receiving yards he was (9-6) to the over and on number of receptions he went (6-6-3). As you can see from his ATS record on prop bets this year he is more likely to hit the over on yardage than receptions. With the weak Titans secondary he should get a couple of chances to break a long one. I like him for the over on yardage but not on receptions.
Special Teams Prop Bet
The Chiefs rank #1 in offensive field goals and the Titans rank 32nd in defensive field goals allowed. This matchup of a good red zone Titans defense and a poor Chiefs reds zone offense will get the Chiefs several chances at field goals and I like them to go over 1.5 field goals for the game.
Titans vs Chiefs Game & Prop Bet Predictions
The total on this game is at 44 points and that is to low. The Chiefs are in a good matchup with the Titans and will be able to score and force the Titans to throw more than they would like. I am not taking a position on the point spread even though I do like the Chiefs to win the game I can see the Titans getting a late touchdown and cover. That is important for prop betting picks. That late slop passing yardage counts on prop bets.
Betting Pick: Over 44 points
Chiefs 30 – Titans 23
Chiefs vs Titans NFL Player Prop Bet Picks
RB Bovada NFL Player Prop Bet Results