New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
Game & Prop Bet Predictions 12-07-17
When: 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, December 7, 2017
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: NBC, NFL Network.
Bovada Betting Line: Saints -1.5.
See live Game & Prop Bet Odds at Bovada here.
Saints vs Falcons Betting Preview
The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons will get to know each other quite well over the next 2 1/2 weeks as they twice over that stretch. The first place New Orleans Saints won their9th in 10 games with a 31-21 victory over Carolina last week. The Falcons still control their own destiny with four games remaining in the division.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, has thrown for an NFL third-best 3,298 yards. Running backs Mark Ingram (NFL-best nine rushing TDs) and rookie Alvin Kamara have combined for at least 200 scrimmage yards in five consecutive games. Matt Ryan and the Falcons had the Saints’ number last year as the as he completed 47 of 66 passes for 571 yards with six touchdowns, no interceptions. The Saints (9-3) defense has made vast improvements in 2017 and is allowing just 17.9 points in the last 10 games. While the Atlanta Falcons (7-5) lost to the Vikings 14-9 last Sunday as Julio Jones (NFC-best 1,063 receiving yards) was limited to two catches for 24 yards versus the Vikings.
Saints vs Falcons Player Preview
Matt Ryan’s production depends largely on the health of New Orleans’ secondary. Three of their four starters have been hurt over the past few weeks. The Rams took advantage of the injuries but it looks like the secondary is healthy enough to hold down a weak Falcons passing game. For the Saints Alvin Kamara continues to produce on a weekly basis despite only getting 13-15 touches. It looks like Mark Ingram will play and that means that the 35 touches will once again be divided between the two. In the Falcons backfield Devonta Freeman returned last week and had more touches than Tevin Coleman. Freeman garnered 6.2 yards per carry against the Vikings, while Coleman had just 2.8. I expect the same kind of distribution with Freeman getting two thirds of the touches. Julio Jones has not been good against the top defensive backs and it looks like he will be up against Lattimore. I like the Falcons to target Mohamed Sanu more as the Saints concentrate on taking away Julio. Michael Thomas finally found the end zone last week for the first time since Week 4. He still has just one 100+ receiving yard game this year. I know the Falcons secondary is a little banged up but I still can’t depend on Thomas to show up. At tight end Austin Hooper will get a few targets but I am betting on a slow paced game that leans to the running game.
Saints vs Falcons Betting Trends
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New Orleans’s last 15 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta’s last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Atlanta’s last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Saints vs Falcons Game Betting Prediction
Mark Ingrahm will play tonight and that will give the Saints the two headed backfield along with Kamara. The Saints have become a good defensive team that will run and pass off of play action. I am not convinced that the Falcons are on a roll or anything close to what they were last year. I know a lot of sharp money has come in on the Falcons and that works for me. I like the Saints and the under.
Saints vs Falcons Betting Picks:
Saints money line +105 & under 52
Saints 24 – Falcons 20
Saints vs Falcons Player Prop Betting Picks & Odds
Total Receiving Yards – Julio Jones (ATL) 85½ 100 Under
Total Receiving Yards – Mohamed Sanu (ATL) 44½ -135 Over
Total Receptions – Alvin Kamara (NO) 5½ -115 Under
Total Receptions – Devonta Freeman (ATL) 2 -105 Over
Total Rushing and Receiving Yards – Alvin Kamara (NO) 115½ 100 Under
Total Passing Yards – Drew Brees (NO) 281½ -115 Under
Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan (ATL) 270½ -105 Under
Total Touchdown Passes – Matt Ryan (ATL) 1½ 150 Under
Total Touchdown Passes – Drew Brees (NO) 1½ 150 Under