Patriots vs Dolphins Player Prop Bet Picks

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction &
NFL Player Prop Bet Picks

When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, December 11, 2017
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: ESPN
Betting Line: Patriots -11
Total: 47.5
Current Bovada Game & Prop Bet Lines

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
Game & Player Prop Betting Preview

New England Patriots

Tom Brady may have struggled against the Bills last week, but he was hot for almost two months before that game. Brady should be able to move the ball at will against a weak Dolphins defense. He threw four touchdowns against this same defense two weeks ago, and the yardage could have been there if the game would have stayed close. At running back Rex Burkhead has had two really strong games with four touchdowns in two games. Dion Lewis also had 15 carries for 92 yards last week. When making prop bets on the Patriot running backs I would bet on Burkhead for touchdowns and Lewis for yards. Tight end Rob Gronkowski will miss this game due to suspension childish hit on a defenseless player last week, and that will open up some targets for other players. I like some of those targets to go to Brandin Cooks in this game. Chris Hogan appears on track to return from his shoulder injury and if he plays look for him to get some of those Gronk targets as well. Of course, Danny Amendola will get his targets, too. Of course i like Brady to rip up a bad secondary and try to put the Dolphins away early so they can players off the field and keep them healthy for next weeks Pittsburgh game. The hard part is picking the receivers that Brady will target in this game. Don’t think to hard as covering the field on overs will produce more winners than losers and make a nice little profit.

Miami Dolphins

This is not the same New England pass defense that Jay Cutler threw for 300 yards earlier in the season. The big upside for Cutler is he will be throwing a lot because the Dolphins will be behind and that is good for yardage, attempts and completion prop bets. At running back Damien Williams has not returned to practice, so expect Kenyan Drake to get the touches this week. He looked good against the Broncos in Week 13 and his pass catching ability will keep him on the field in this game. Even if Williams is active, I like Drake to get over 70% of the work. At receiver, Kenny Stills saw 13 targets last week against the Broncos. While I don’t expect that many this week he will get a lot of targets because the Dolphins will need to throw a lot tonight. In the last game between these two teams, Jarvis Landry had eight catches for 70 yards in that game. The passing game will get a lot of volume and that is big for prop betting. I like the Patriots to score early and often and this will mean the Dolphins will be passing a lot in this game.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
NFL Betting Trends

New England Patriots

New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England’s last 8 games
New England is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games when playing Miami
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami

Miami Dolphins

Miami is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games
Miami is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Miami is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami’s last 11 games at home
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games when playing New England

Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Prediction

Current Bovada Game & Prop Bet Lines
The Patriots are double digit road favorites and over the history of NFL betting home dogs in this situation have been the team to bet on. I can’t. The Patriots do not play to the level of the competition and that is one reason why they keep getting home field advantage in the playoffs. The game flow will have Brady and the Pats get out to a large lead and the Dolphins will get a lot of slop yards and some late points to get this game over the total. I like the Pats and over for my game bets and I like several player prop overs as the Dolphins benefit from slop time.

Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Picks: Patriots -11 and over 47.5
Score Prediction:
Patriots 37 – Dolphins 20

Patriots vs Dolphins Player Prop Bet Picks

Current Bovada Game & Prop Bet Lines
Total Receiving Yards – James White (NE) 24½ -125 Over
Total Receiving Yards – Danny Amendola (NE) 40½ -125 Over
Total Receiving Yards – Brandin Cooks (NE) 79½ -115 Over
Total Receiving Yards – Kenyan Drake (MIA) 22½ -135 Over
Total Receiving Yards – Kenny Stills (MIA) 57½ -125 Over
Total Receiving Yards – Jarvis Landry (MIA) 60½ -115 Over
Total Receptions – Brandin Cooks (NE) 5½ -125 Over
Total Receptions – Kenyan Drake (MIA) 3 -125 Over
Total Receptions – Julius Thomas (MIA) 3 -115 Over
Total Rushing and Receiving Yards – James White (NE) 39½ -105 Over
Total Rushing and Receiving Yards – Dion Lewis (NE) 72½ -130 Over
Total Passing Yards – Jay Cutler (MIA) 235½ -125 Over
Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE) 289½ -125 Over
Total Passing Attempts in the game – Jay Cutler (MIA) 35½ -125 Over
Total Completions – Jay Cutler (MIA) 21½ -125 Over
Total Interceptions Thrown – Jay Cutler (MIA) 1 -155 Over

Bovada NFL Player Prop Bet Odds

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