New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL Prop Bet Picks 10-05-17 TNF

How bad has the New England defense been? They rank 32nd in Football Outsiders Overall DVOA and the Pass DVOA also ranks 32nd. For you first half and quarter gamblers. The defense ranks 30th in quarter 1-3 DVOA. This week they go up against Mike Evans who has a 5-inch height advantage on Stephon Gilmore. Even better he is 7 inches taller than Malcolm Butler. Malcolm Butler has allowed a QB rating of 103.3 on throws in his coverage. It gets worse, safety Devin McCourty has a passer rating allowed of 146.38 .

For those of you who like the stats to get started:

Buccaneers Run Defense – 3rd DVOA / 2nd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run Offense – 12th DVOA / 22nd Yards per carry

Buccaneers Pass Defense – 27th DVOA / 22nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Patriots Pass Offense – 2nd DVOA / 2nd Yards per pass attempt

Patriots Run Defense – 22nd DVOA / 31st Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run Offense – 20th DVOA / 19th Yards per carry

Patriots Pass Defense – 32nd DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Buccaneers Pass Offense – 9th DVOA / 7th Yards per pass attempt

So we know how bad the Pats defense has been but the Bucs pass defense hasn’t been that great. The question here is who on the Patriots will get the targets? Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski or, Cooks? Hogan ranks second in the NFL in red zone targets with eight; Gronk has six and, Cooks has zero red zone targets on the year.

Tampa gets back running back Doug Martin back this this week, however his suspension prevented him from working out with the team the last several weeks. I don’t see Tampa risking an injury to him with a heavy workload in this game. I have Jacquizz Rodgers getting the running carries and Charles Sims coming in on passing downs.

How will the Pats stop the Bucs this week? New England has always been known for taking out the other teams number one threat and they continue to do that this year. However, the league has caught on and opposing teams have been spreading the ball around. The lack of Patriots pass rush means they have to take chances in the secondary this year. If they try to take away Evans then DeSean Jackson is a strong bet for eight or more targets this week. Another guy I like is Cameron Brate to get 6+ targets. I like all three to get 6+ targets and I could see the touchdowns being spread around to all of them.

Patriots vs Buccaneers Prop Bet Picks

As Bill Clinton once said. “Sometimes a wet cigar is just a wet cigar”. Sometimes a shootout is just a shootout. Don’t over think this game. Even if it starts off slow both teams will be confident in the passing game. Both quarterbacks should have 37+ attempts.

Total Receiving Yards – Mike Evans (TB) Over 79½ -125
Total Receiving Yards – DeSean Jackson (TB) Over 57½ -125
Total Receiving Yards – Cameron Brate (TB) Over 37½ -125
Total Receiving Yards – Chris Hogan (NE) Over 62½ -125
Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski (NE) Over 72½ -115
Total Receptions – Mike Evans (TB) Over 6 -115
Total Receptions – DeSean Jackson (TB) Over 3½ -130
Total Receptions – Cameron Brate (TB) Over 3½ -105
Total Receptions – Chris Hogan (NE) Over 4½ -125
Total Rushing Yards – Jameis Winston (TB) Over 10½ -125
Total Passing Attempts in the game – Tom Brady (NE) Over 39½ -125
Total Touchdown Passes – Tom Brady (NE) Over 2½ -125
Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE) Over 315½ -130
Total Passing Yards – Jameis Winston (TB) Over 290½ -125

To see live odds and team prop bets go to Bovada/Sportsbook
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