Falcons vs Patriots Prop Bet Picks
NFL Sunday Night Football

Super Bowl rematch on Sunday Night Football. Both teams are under performing for two teams that were in last years Super Bowl. If this is your first time on PropBets.Football take the time to look at our Super Bowl player prop bet picks from Super Bowl 51. Come back every week for prop betting predictions during the regular season and during the playoffs.
When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, October 22, 2017
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
Betting Line: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 56
See live betting lines & prop bet odds on Bovada here.

Falcons vs Patriots Prop Betting Analysis

Atlanta Falcons

The 56 points Bovada has up is a high total. Why so high? All six quarterbacks that have faced the Patriots this year have thrown for 300+ yards. Who are these all stars? Josh McCown, Cam Newton, and Jameis Winston each went for 300+ yards against this team. It has been a slow start for Matt Ryan with a new offensive coordinator. The Patriots secondary and lack of pass rush will do a lot to help the Falcons offense look like last years offense.

Devonta Freeman is getting about 70% of the offensive snaps at running back. That leaves Tevin Coleman as a tough call because he is just not getting the touches to do a lot. However, Coleman is the better receiver and in a shootout this is good spot to take him for receiving yards only.

There once was a top receiver for the Falcons named Julio Jones. Is this the week he takes his face off of the milk carton and gets in the end zone? I say yes. Julio Jones will get his targets if he has to go to Matt Ryan and get in his face to audible the calls. One big thing to watch is the health of Mohamed Sanu. If he sits out, upgrade Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper again. They combined for 17 targets last week with Sanu out.

I like the offensive production here. I am leaning away from the running game as I don’t think either team will be able to sit on the ball with a lead. If you doubt me….go back and look at what happened to the Falcons when they tried to sit on a lead in Super Bowl 51.

 

New England Patriots

Tom Brady is having one of his best years. With the Patriots terrible defense he has to have one of his best years for them to win. He leads the league with nearly 2,000 passing yards already. The Falcons don’t have a top defense either so Tom should look good again. One thing to watch is the Falcons pass rush. In the Super Bowl they were good early but they wore down in the second half and with all of the passing attempt Brady will put up they will do the same thing again. A second half over bet is a good side bet to look at.

Mike Gillislee had three short touchdown runs against the Chiefs in his first game of the season. He has only scored once since then. The Pats pass first offense has made Dion Lewis and James White a better fit for this offense. Dion Lewis had 43% of the snaps last week. James White was about the same and Gillislee was under 20%.

Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan have combined for nine scores so far so if you are looking for touchdowns then these are the two guys to target. The hard part about everyone else is who will get the targets? I am looking for more yards than targets for the other receivers as I expect there to be several big plays in the second half of this game. However, inside the red zone expect either Gronk or Hogan to get the targets.

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Falcons vs Patriots Prop Betting Picks
10-22-17 Sunday Night Football

Total Receiving Yards – Mohamed Sanu (ATL) 45½ -115 Under
Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski (NE) 72½ -115 Over
Total Receiving Yards – James White (NE) 37½ -115 Over
Total Receiving Yards – Brandin Cooks (NE) 67½ -115 Over
Total Receptions – Austin Hooper (ATL) 3½ -115 Over
Total Receiving Yards – Julio Jones (ATL) 92½ -115 Over
Total Receiving Yards – Devonta Freeman (ATL) 24½ -115 Under
Total Receptions – Danny Amendola (NE) 4 -115 Over
Total Rushing Yards – Devonta Freeman (ATL) 67½ -115 Under
Total Rushing Yards – Mike Gillislee (NE) 45½ -115 Under
Total Rushing and Receiving Yards – James White (NE) 52½ -115 Over
Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE) 310½ -115 Over
Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan (ATL) 300½ -115 Over
Total Passing Attempts in the game – Tom Brady (NE) 37½ -115 Over
Total Completions – Tom Brady (NE) 25½ -115 Over

To see my Game Betting Score Prediction: Sportsbetting.pics/predictions

Falcons vs Patriots Prop Betting Odds
10-22-17 Sunday Night Football

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