SB LI Futures Bet Strategy 01-18-17
Super Bowl LI is only a few weeks away and we are now down to four teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers at the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers at the Atlanta Falcons. The current odds to win it all from Sportsbetting.ag are:
- Atlanta Falcons +250
- Green Bay Packers +375
- New England Patriots +135
- Pittsburgh Steelers +500
- The Patriots are the fan favorite to win it all and they have been laying down a lot of money on them. Lets take it one step further and look at the odds for an exact outcome bet from SportsBetting.ag :
- New England defeats Atlanta +225
- New England defeats Green Bay +450
- Pittsburgh defeats Atlanta +750
- Pittsburgh defeats Green Bay +1400
- Atlanta defeats New England +475
- Atlanta defeats Pittsburgh +750
- Green Bay defeats New England +600
- Green Bay defeats Pittsburgh +1000
Now look at the odds on the Patriots. They are plus 225 vs Atlanta and plus 450 vs the Packers to win it all. If you like the Patriots to win it all you could bet make a straight bet on them at +135. However, if you think the Packers will win this weekend then that +450 looks pretty inviting. Of course you would be risking you bet if the Falcons beat the Packers. But, lets take a look at how much you are risking vs how much you could get back.
Patriots Futures Bet
Lets say we have a total of $1,000 to bet on the Super Bowl and the Patriots are the choice.
- Straight bet the Patriots with $1,000 to win $1,350.
- Bet $500 on the Patriots to beat the Packers at +450 to win $2,250.
- Bet $1,000 on the Patriots to beat the Falcons at +225 to win $2,250.
The second and third bet provide a nice bump up in your return. With the second bet your bankroll risk is reduced. This also allows you a chance to bet on the Packers in the Super Bowl to buy a little “insurance” in case the Packers win.
My choice would be to bet $500 on the Patriots to beat the Packers in Super Bowl 51. If both teams make it to Super Bowl LI. Then the next bet would be to take the Packers and the points. Since the Patriots will be favored against whoever they play. Taking the Green Bay Packers would give me a chance to try and middle the game.
The Patriots and the Packers both win.
I now have $500 bet on the Patriots money line to beat the Packers. If they do I will get $2,250 and get my $500 bet back for a total of $2,750. I estimate that the Patriots will be a 6 point favorite against the Packers. Betting $500 on the Packers +6 gives me a chance to win both bets and guarantees I will at least win one bet.
When looking at how much you win. Remember that if you win you also get your original wager back. A $100 bet on at +100 means you win $100 & you get your $100 wager back. The total back is $200.
Here are the possible outcomes in this scenario:
1) Patriots win by 7 or more points.
I win the Patriots money line bet and lose the Packers +6
Bet $1,000 & win $2,250 (lose $500 on Packers bet)
2) The Patriots win by exactly 6 points.
I win the Patriots money line bet and push the Packers +6
Bet $1,000 & win $2,750 (the push returns $500 Packers bet)
3) The Packers win the game outright.
I lose the Patriots money line bet and win on Packers +6
Bet $1,000 & lose $55 (the $500 on Packers +6 wins $455)
4) The Packers lose the game by less than 6 points.
I win both the Patriots money line & the Packers +6
Bet $1,000 & win $2750 + $945 = $3,695
If you bet, Get a Welcome Bonus
Even if you have an account at one online sportsbook. This is your chance to get a boost in your bankroll or get some of your bet back by getting a welcome bonus at another online sportsbook. There are about a hundred online sportsbooks out there but I only deal with a few. Here are the three best welcome bonus offers at online sportsbooks that I can recommend. GL and never bet more than you can lose….
Three Top Sportsbook Welcome Bonus Offers:
Good luck and check back for more on Super Bowl LI betting information. If you are looking for game betting predictions check out SportsBetting.pics for free NFL betting predictions.