Game; Date, Odds, Time, TV

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
AFC Championship Prop Betting Picks

When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 22, 2017
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: CBS
Betting Line: Patriots -5.5
Total: 50.5

NFL Live Betting Line

Steelers vs Patriots Game Preview

*** We will be adding more picks up to kickoff

Updated 1/22/17 9:40 AM Las Vegas Time***

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to New England for the AFC Championship game and are listed at 5.5 point dogs. The total is set at 50.5 points. This game will feature two top name quarterbacks in Tom Brady & Ben Roethlisberger. If you think you are ready to make prop bets now. I suggest you read on a little and learn about what I do for a living. The information below is by no means all of the info I go over. It is just the information I had time to write down.

** Bovada QB prop bet lines are out but the rest of the lines have not been posted yet. Combine that with weather or injury updates and I will be making more picks right up to game day. ** Also, if you like this then you need to come back for Super Bowl 51 and a lot of prop bet picks that will be posted here. GL **

Steelers vs Patriots in the Red Zone

What to watch for? The Steelers home road splits have been pretty dramatic this year. We have seen the offensive difference in the playoffs with the home win over the Dolphins & the road win over the Chiefs. One of the most telling stats for the Steelers this year has been the home / away split for scoring touchdowns in the red zone. At home when the Steelers make it into the red zone they score 72% of the time but on the road they only score a touchdown 37% of the time. That 37% touchdown production in the red zone ranks 28th in the league. Last week they played at Kansas City and the Chiefs ranked 4th in home red zone defense. What happend? The Steelers ended up with zero touchdowns and six field goals in the game. This week they go against a Patriots team when at home has the 9th ranked red zone defense. In many ways the Patriots and Chiefs play the same type of bend but don’t break defense.

When it comes to prop betting. The red zone will lead to which you should bet more on. Touchdowns or field goals. The problems that Pittsburgh has had in the red zone has been pretty good for betting on overs for field goals. The road red zone troubles also can be seen in the field goals made by the Steelers. At home they average 1.3 made field goals per game, while on the road they average 2.1 made field goals per game. For the Patriots there is a home / road split on field goals. However, it is in field goals allowed. At home opponents make 1.9 field goals per game, while when the Pats are on the road opponents make 0.9 field goals per game. The Pats red zone defense is a little better at home.

Scoring by Quarter

These two teams start off fast. In first quarter scoring the Patriots are number one in the NFL averaging 8.5 points per game, while the Steelers ranked third with 6.4 points per game. For the Pats the home / road split was not a real factor but, for Pittsburgh once again we see a real difference. At home in the 1st quarter the Steelers average 8.2 points per game while on the road they average 4.6 points per game.
See the Chart for Details.

Offense Scoring by Quarter: Pit vs NE1st Quarter2nd Quarter3rd Quarter4th QuarterTotal
Pittsburgh6.45.94.08.224.8
New England8.56.86.66.127.9
Away/Home Split
Pittsburgh4.66.03.27.421.2
New England8.26.87.35.227.6

Now lets take a look at Opponents scoring by Quarter:

Opponent Scoring by Quarter: Pit vs NE1st Quarter2nd Quarter3rd Quarter4th QuarterTotal
Pittsburgh4.04.84.36.519.7
New England2.15.13.64.915.6
Away/Home Split
Pittsburgh4.05.64.35.219.2
New England1.84.74.15.015.6

What does this mean for prop betting? That the Steelers may be the 3rd ranked first quarter scoring team in the NFL but, they are going against the best NFL team in limiting opponent scoring at home in the first quarter. If you are going to make a prop bet on who scores the first touchdown. Bet on a Patriot player. If I was going to make a first score bet on Pittsburgh. It would be on a field goal.

Sacks Per Game

These two teams do not give up a lot of sacks. The Steelers ranked 2nd in the NFL giving up just an average of 1.3 sacks per game (1.2 per game on the road), while the Patriots ranked 5th by giving up an average of 1.5 sacks per game (1.7 per game at home). How about on defense? The Steelers defense ranked 7th in sacking the opposing quarterback averaging 2.4 sacks per game (2.3 on the road), while the Patriots were pretty weak in this area ranking 17th with 2.2 defensive sacks overall (2.2 sacks per game at home). If you are going to bet on sacks in this game you should lean to under 4 per game. A note here. I also do live prop betting. That means I do prop bets during the game. For me, I also like to wait and see if there are a few injuries to the offensive line that can give me an advantage. If you have never seen live prop betting. Bovada offers it. Just click on any of the Bovada links during the game and go to the football lines section of Bovada.

Passing Yards Per Game

We have two top quarterbacks so that should lead to a lot of passing, right? Maybe not. Lets take a look at the numbers. For Ben Roethlisberger, lets look at the home/away splits again. Overall, Ben has been pretty consistent on passing yards with 1,915 at home and 1,904 on the road. The divergence happens on his touchdowns to interceptions. At home Ben has 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions while on the road he has 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Now lets look at Tom Brady’s numbers. We all know Tom missed the first 4 games of the season and these were 2 road and 2 home game. So, the splits are still relevant. One thing that stands out is they threw the ball more on the road than at home. This was caused by the large leads they had while playing at home this season. His home passing yardage was 1,581, while his road passing yardage was 1,983. When it comes to touchdowns vs interceptions. At home he had a 10 touchdown to 2 interceptions while on the road he had 18 touchdowns and no interceptions. Yes, Brady was better on the road than at home. Not what most people expected.
Sportsbetting

Defense Passing & Rushing Yards

What to expect from the defense. Lets just look at the basic rankings for both defenses. Since many prop bets on running backs and receivers are on yards. That is my focus. When it comes to defensive yards allowed. The Steelers defense against the run is ranked 9th in yards allowed averaging 95.2 yards per game (86.7 per game on the road). The Patriots defense gives up an average of 89.5 yards per game rushing (91.3 per game at home). When it comes to stopping the pass. The Steelers rank 13th with 238.9 passing yards allowed per game (224.6 per game on the road). The Patriots are not much better ranking 11th, while giving up 234.5 yards per game (234.2 at home). Both teams have done a good job of limiting the opposition offense. The thing to note on defense is neither team has a big home / road split.

Ready for some Prop Bet Picks!

The prop bets are listed with the players name and odds. Then the bet I predict and the name of the sportsbook that bet is with. Since I use three different sportsbooks to line shop the same bet can have different odds depending on where I bet. Line shopping is very important to prop betting because the lines vary far more on prop bets than on game line.

Quarterback Prop Bet Picks

Ben Roethlisberger Prop Bet Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
270.5 Total Passing Yards – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Pick: Under 270.5 Passing Yards (-105)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
1.5 Total Touchdown Passes – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Pick: Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+155)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Compare prop bet odds for interceptions

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
0.5 Total Interceptions Thrown – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
NO Pick : Over 0.5 Interceptions (-200)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Pittsburgh @ New England
Total Interceptions by Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Pick: Over ½ Interceptions (-180)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Tom Brady Prop Bet Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
280.5 Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)
Pick: Under 285.5 Passing Yards (+105)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Interceptions Thrown – Tom Brady (NE)
Pick: Over 0.5 Interceptions (+120)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

MyBookie.ag Welcome Bonus

MyBookie online sportsbook is really helping you get ready for the Super Bowl. They are offering up to $3,000 in a welcome Bonus. You can bet from home on your phone or computer. Read more about it and check out the NFL lines.
$3,000

Running Back Prop Bet Picks

LeGarrette Blount is a good option for a touchdown this week. Last week he didn’t play much because he was sick. He has 18 touchdowns in 17 games played. The Pats rush the ball 55% of the time in the red zone. The Steelers are one of the better teams a shutting down the touchdown pass in the red zone.

LeVeon Bell

For rushing yards prop bet. If you like the over use Sportsbetting.ag odds but, if you like the under use Bovada odds. By using Sportsbetting.ag for my over bet I am getting +35 compared to Bovada on the odds. All I am giving up is 2 yards (112.5 vs 110.5).

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
110.5 Total Rushing Yards – Le’Veon Bell (PIT)
NO Pick (use Sportsbetting.ag ): Over 110.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Pittsburgh @ New England
Total Rushing yards by Le’Veon Bell (PIT)
Pick: Over 112.5 Rushing Yards (+110)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
40.5 Total Receiving Yards – Le’Veon Bell (PIT)
Pick: Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

DeAngelo Williams

Not on the boards this week

LaGarrette Blount

Pittsburgh @ New England – Player to Score 1st Touchdown
Pick: LeGarrette Blount (NE) (+800)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh @ New England
Total Rushing yards by LeGarrette Blount (NE)
Pick: Over 54½ Rushing Yards (-115)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Dion Lewis

Pittsburgh @ New England – Player to Score 1st Touchdown
Pick: Dion Lewis (NE) (+1200)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Rushing and Receiving Yards – Dion Lewis (NE)
Pick: Over 65.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

MyBookie.ag Welcome Bonus

MyBookie online sportsbook is really helping you get ready for the Super Bowl. They are offering up to $3,000 in a welcome Bonus. You can bet from home on your phone or computer. Read more about it and check out the NFL lines.
$3,000

Receiving Prop Bet Picks

Antonio Brown

Pittsburgh @ New England
Longest Reception by Antonio Brown (PIT)
Pick: Over 28½ Yards (-125)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh @ New England
Total Receiving yards by Antonio Brown (PIT)
Pick: Over 95.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Sammie Coats

No bets

Eli Rodgers

Pittsburgh @ New England
Longest Reception by Eli Rogers (PIT)
Pick: Under 20½ Yards (-115)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Receiving Yards – Eli Rogers (PIT)
Pick: Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (100)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Jesse James

Pittsburgh @ New England
Player to Score 1st Pittsburgh Touchdown
Pick: Jesse James (PIT) (+750)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh @ New England
Total Receptions by Jesse James (PIT)
Pick: Over 3 Receptions (-125)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh @ New England
Total Receiving yards by Jesse James (PIT)
Pick: Over 33½ Receiving Yards (-125)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Ladarius Green

Off of the board

Julian Edalman

Pittsburgh @ New England
Total Receiving yards by Julian Edelman (NE)
Pick: Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Chris Hogan

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Receiving Yards – Chris Hogan (NE)
Pick: Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Malcolm Mitchell

No bets

Michael Floyd

No bets

Martellus Bennett

Pittsburgh @ New England
Player to Score 1st New England Touchdown
Pick: Martellus Bennett (NE) (+700)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Receiving Yards – Martellus Bennett (NE)
Pick: Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

James White

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Receiving Yards – James White (NE)
Pick: Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (100)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Defense Prop Bet Picks

Patrick Chung

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Tackles and Assists – Patrick Chung (NE)
Pick: Under 5.5 Tackles & Assists (-115)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Devin McCourty

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Tackles and Assists – Devin McCourty (NE)
Pick: Under 5.5 Tackles & Assists (–15)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Ryan Shazier

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Total Tackles and Assists – Ryan Shazier (PIT)
Pick: Under 7 Tackles & Assists (-115)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Special Teams Prop Bet Picks

Pittsburgh @ New England Combined – Total Field Goals
Over 3½ Field Goals (+125)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

MyBookie.ag Welcome Bonus

MyBookie online sportsbook is really helping you get ready for the Super Bowl. They are offering up to $3,000 in a welcome Bonus. You can bet from home on your phone or computer. Read more about it and check out the NFL lines.
$3,000

Team Prop Bet Picks

Pittsburgh @ New England – First Score of Game
Pick: Field Goal or Safety (+160)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh @ New England – Game Margin Of Victory
New England by 1 to 6 Points (+350)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh @ New England
Total Pittsburgh Steelers Field Goals
Pick: Over 1.5 Field Goals (-110)
SportsBetting.ag NFL Lines

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
3rd Quarter Total
Pick: Under 10 Points (-110)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Alternate Spread 2
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +14.5 (-350)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Alternate Spread 3
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5 (-220)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds