Game; Date, Odds, Time, TV

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons
NFC Championship Prop Betting Picks

When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 22, 2017
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Fox
Betting Line: Atlanta -5
Total: 60.5

NFL Live Betting Line

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons Preview

*** We will be adding more prop bet picks up to Kickoff

Updated 1-22-17 @ 9:30 AM Las Vegas Time***

The Green Bay Packesr travel to Atlanta for the NFC Championship game and are listed at 5 point dogs. The total is set at 60.5 points. This game will feature two top quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers & Matt Ryan. If you are new to prop betting. I suggest you read on a little and learn about what I do for a living. The information below is by no means all of the info I go over. It is just the information I had time to write down.

** Please check back as more picks will be added up to game time. The quarterback props are released first and they are below. The other prop bets will be added as soon as the lines are released. With weather and/or injury updates I will be making more picks right up to game day. **

** If you like what you see now. Be sure to check back for the Super Bowl. **

Red Zone Offense & Defense

Because I started out prop betting in Las Vegas casinos. I began looking at field goals because they were always listed on parlay cards for Sunday & Monday night games. I found they were one of the easiest prop bets to win. The key on field goals made is to have an offense gain enough yards to get in field goal position and not be able to score a touchdown. That lead me to taking a serious look at red zone offense & defense.

The Packers and Falcons both have good red zone offenses. Green Bay was ranked 9th in the regular season and scored an offensive touchdown on 63% of their red zone drives. Atlanta was right behind as the 10th ranked team scoring a touchdown 61% of the time. The home away splits are both pretty good. The Packers rank 6th in red zone scoring on the road, while the Falcons rank 12th in red zone scoring at home.

On defense both of these teams are pathetic. It becomes clear why the total was set so high. The Atlanta Falcons rank 31st overall in red zone defense. What could be worse? They rank 32nd in red zone defense at home. The Packers are bad but not that bad. The Packers are the 25th ranked red zone defense overall and 26th on the road. What does this mean for field goals? That once a team gets inside the twenty they are likely to score. It also means that on a fourth down inside the red zone you might as well go for it.

Scoring By Quarter

Another popular prop bet is scoring by quarters or by half. That has also evolved into who will score first and what type of score will happen first. For those lets take a look at how each team has done by quarter on offense and defense. The points are a little different than what you will see elsewhere because I do not include OT scoring and the total is rounded to 0.1.
[table id=3 /]
Sportsbetting

Now lets look at how the defenses did by quarter:
[table id=4 /]

What really stands out are the second and third quarters. In the second quarter both teams have gotten into a rhythm. In the third quarter there is a dramatic drop in scoring. This can in part be attributed to half time adjustments. In the fourth quarter the scoring increases again for both offenses. If you want to make a prop bet on which quarter will have the most scoring. I think the bet is obvious. These are nice charts for betting totals on each quarter. Yes, those bets will be up before each game and you can make bets on sides & totals for every quarter of each game.

Sacks Per Game

Both Atlanta & Green Bay gave up an average of 2.4 sacks per game. On the road Green Bay surrendered 2.7  per game while Atlanta gave up 2.3 per game. On defense, Green Bay averaged sacking the opponent quarterback 2.4 times per game while Atlanta got to the opposing quarterback 2.2 times per game. The home / road splits are: Green Bay 2.3 on the road and Atlanta 2.0 at home. Both teams ranked in the middle of sacks allowed and defensive sacks. Neither quarterback should be too concerned about the pass rush.

Passing Yards Per Game

This is where these two teams excel. The Falcons are ranked 3rd with 296.9 passing yards per game while the Packers are ranked 5th at 269.8 passing yards per game. The home / away split for the Packers have them ranked 6th at 270.4. The Falcons at home are ranked #2 at 313.1. In case you are wondering. The Saints are #1 in passing yards.

Passing defense gets a little ugly. Green Bay ranked 31st in passing yards (271.9 YPG) allowed while the Falcons ranked 27th (263.2 YPG). Home / away split has Green Bay ranked 31st and giving up 297.2 yards per game. The Falcons are ranked 27th at home and gave up an average of 270.6 passing yards per game.

The thing to take from this is that if neither team finds a way to get to the quarterback and get a few sacks. This will be a track meet. Both defenses will have to gamble because they just can’t stop the others passing game by playing defense they way they have so far this season. There will be big plays in this game.

Rushing Yards Per Game

So, neither team can stop the pass. What about the rush? If you want to bet over / under on a running back you need to know if he will even be needed. In offenses rushing yards per game we do see a big difference between the two teams. The Packers were not very good and ranked 22nd overall in rushing, with an average of 103.5 yards per game. The Falcons ranked 5th and averaged 119.2 yards per game.

Now lets look at these two sorry defenses. Green Bay was OK against the run and ranked 10th by giving up an average of 95.7 yards per game on the ground. Atlanta wasn’t too far behind and ranked 17th and gave up an average of 104.3 yards per game. The home / away split for rushing has the Packers on the road ranked 7th at 95.9 yards per game. Atlanta at home ranked 14th at 94.0 a game.

What to take away from all of this? Yes, the Falcons can run on the Packers. But will they? This is an opportunity that Atlanta has to give its defense a rest and keep the ball away from Rodgers. The question is will they or will they just come out and take advantage of the deep pass against a weak secondary. Atlanta can do either. For the Packers to score consistently it must be done passing.

Using Fantasy Stats

I started off betting on sports and did a little prop betting. Then I became involved in daily fantasy sports. The crossover between player prop betting and daily fantasy sports is obvious. It is a game of match ups as much as a football game. In helping me to pinpoint players I like to use some basic fantasy results from the regular season. These are from ESPN.

The chart ranks the best defenses to go against. A #1 ranking means that the defense gave up the most fantasy points to that position.
[table id=5 /]
What does this chart tell us? That the total of 60.5 points may be a little low. The tight end is a vulnerable area for the Falcons and it is an area to look at for a prop bet.

Now that we have a little background information. Ready to make some bets?If you are I use the online sportsbooks to make my bets. The book I used for a particular bet will be listed below the bet. If you want to see lines for players not listed below or more lines for each game (there should be over a hundred lines up) just click on the link for each sportsbook. GL

Quarterback Prop Betting Picks

Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
325.5 Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Pick: Over 325.5 Passing Yards (-135)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
2.5 Total Touchdown Passes – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Pick: Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (-175)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
26.5 Total Completions – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Pick: Over 26.5 Completions (-130)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Matt Ryan

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
319.5 Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan (ATL)
Pick: Over 319.5 Passing yards (-130)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
2.5 Total Touchdown Passes – Matt Ryan (ATL)
Pick: Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (-155)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
0.5 Total Interceptions Thrown – Matt Ryan (ATL)
Pick: Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Running Back Prop Betting Picks

Ty Montgomery

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Rushing Yards – Ty Montgomery (GB)
Pick: Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Rushing and Receiving Yards – Ty Montgomery (GB)
Pick: Over 85.5 Receiving & Rushing Yards Combined (-115)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receiving Yards – Ty Montgomery (GB)
Pick: Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Christine Michael

He is questionable & off the board

Devonta Freeman

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Rushing Yards – Devonta Freeman (ATL)
Pick: Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Tevin Coleman

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Rushing Yards – Tevin Coleman (ATL)
Pick: Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Receiver Prop Betting Picks

Some match ups to take advantage of in this high scoring game. Mohammad Sanu against the Packers. He is the possession / red zone receiver. Look for him to be a top target of Ryan and in good position to score touchdowns against a weak Packers secondary.

The Packers have some real good options. Once the injuries are sorted out I will have my picks up. The Falcons defense ranks 31st in yards after contact on defense. They are one of the worst tackling teams in football and that means short passes to possession receivers or to backs can go for big gains.

Randall Cobb

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receiving Yards – Randall Cobb (GB)
Pick: Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

 

Davante Adams

Green Bay @ Atlanta
Player To Score A Touchdown: Packers @ Falcons Davente Adams (gb)
Pick: Yes (-120)
See MyBookie.ag for Odds

Jordy Nelson

Not on board

Geronimo Allison

Green Bay @ Atlanta
Total Receiving yards by Geronimo Allison (GB)
Pick: Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Sportsbetting.ag NFL Prop Bet Odds

 

Jared Cook

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receiving Yards – Jared Cook (GB)
Pick: Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receptions – Jared Cook (GB)
Pick: Over 4.5 Receptions (-155)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

 

Julio Jones

Green Bay @ Atlanta – Player to Score 2 or More Touchdowns
Pick: Julio Jones (ATL) (+450)
Sportsbetting.ag NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receiving Yards – Julio Jones (ATL)
Pick: Over 92.5 (-135)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Taylor Gabriel

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receiving Yards – Taylor Gabriel (ATL)
Pick: Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Mohammad Sanu

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receiving Yards – Mohamed Sanu (ATL)
Pick: Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receptions – Mohamed Sanu (ATL)
Pick: Over 4 Receptions (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

 

Justin Hardy

Not on board

Austin Harper

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Receiving Yards – Austin Hooper (ATL)
Pick: Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

BetOnline.ag

Defense Prop Betting Picks

Deion Jones

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Tackles and Assists – Deion Jones (ATL)
Pick: Under 6.5 Tackles & Assists (-130)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Keanu Neal

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Tackles and Assists – Keanu Neal (ATL)
Pick: Under 7.5 Tackles & Assists (+120)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Ha Ha Clinton Dix

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Tackles and Assists – Ha Ha Clinton Dix (GB)
Pick: Over 5.5 Tackles & Assists (-115)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Vic Beasley

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Tackles and Assists – Vic Beasley Jr. (ATL)
Pick: Over 3 Tackles & Assists (-125)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Defense Team Props

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total QB Sacks by the Packers
Pick: Over 2.5 Sacks (-105)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Special Teams Prop Betting Picks

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Total Successful Field Goals – Falcons
Pick: Over 1.5 Successful Field Goals (-200)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Team Prop Betting Picks

The next two bets are an example of why I line shop at three different sportsbooks. I would be a fool to take the second bet and give up 6 yards.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
48.5 Yards Longest Touchdown Yardage in the Game
Pick: Over 48.5 Yards (-115)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay @ Atlanta – Longest TD in Game
54.5 Yards Longest Touchdown of Game (-110)
NO PICK: I just included this to show the difference in odds between books
Sportsbetting.ag NFL Prop Bet Odds

The next two bets are both on total touchdowns. I will divide my bet in half with 50% going to over 7 at (-115) & 50% over 7.5 (+110).

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
7 Total Touchdowns Both Teams Combined
Pick: Over 7 Combined Touchdowns (-115)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
7.5 Total Touchdowns Both Teams Combined
Pick: Over 7.5 Combined Touchdowns (+110)
Sportsbetting.ag NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Alternate Spread 3
Pick: Packers +7.5 Points (-160)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Team to score first in the game
Pick: Packers (+105)
Bovada.lv NFL Prop Bet Odds