NFL Prop Bet Picks 9-25-16
It is that time again. Time to make some money betting on the NFL and since I live in Las Vegas it is time for me to pay the mortgage with some winners. If you are new to this then these bets are on prop bets and not on sides and totals. An example of a prop bet would be betting on the total passing yards for Arron Rodgers in a game. It might seem a little far fetched but if you have filled out your Draftkings daily fantasy football roster then you already have your information ready to make a prop bet. Just take a look at your fantasy football roster and pick the guy who you think will over perform expectations.
Lets get started with this weeks picks.
Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals Prop Bets
Andy Dalton Passing Yards
Total Passing Yards – Andy Dalton (CIN) 232.5 passing yards Over/Under (-115)
The Bengals will be relying on their offense, which is averaging 396.5 yards per game, and Andy Dalton, who leads the league with 732 passing yards. The Cincinnati ground game is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry and I don’t see any reason for it to improve in this game. Dalton will complete a lot of short passes to keep away from the pass rush but those short passes add up to a lot of yards.
Pick: Andy Dalton over 232.5 passing yards
Broncos vs Bengals Field Goals
The loss of tight end Tyler Eifert has hampered the offense in the red zone. Last year the Bengals averaged 1.7 field goal attempts per game but, this year they are averaging 3.5. The Bengals need to get the rushing game going to give Dalton a chance to throw off of play action. So far this season the Bengals rank 30th in the league with a 2.8 average per rush. The Broncos have been able to run the ball ranking 7th in the league with a 4.2 average per rush. However, they to have had trouble in the red zone scoring a touchdown on only 33% of their drives which ranks 26th in the NFL.
Over 3½ Field Goals +115
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Prop Bets
The Lions offense is usually one of the best in the NFL in the red zone. This year they are scoring a touchdown on 71% of the red zone trips. Last year they ranked 2nd in the NFL in red zone proficiency scoring a touchdown on 69% of possessions. Unfortunately for the Lions, their red zone defense was one of the worst in the NFL last year surrendering a touchdown on 63% of possessions. This year, they are the worst with an unheard of 100% of red zone possessions ending up in a touchdown. I know it is to early to make a season long projection but it downs show that there was no improvement over the off season.
Over 5 Touchdowns -140
Oakland Raiders vs Tennessee Titans
Will Score a Touchdown
I like this one because it is not who will score first which is pretty much like playing craps. The bet is on a player scoring a touchdown at anytime during a game. What you look for in this situation is of course a high scoring game. The Raiders have one of the better offenses in the league and they have one of the worst defenses in the league. Nice combo to rack up some touchdowns. Here is where the daily fantasy football stats come in handy. The Raiders are the worst defense in the league against wide receivers. With Kendall Wright in a good position to get a touchdown in this game I will take him at +350. Another Titan worth taking is Mariota, he can run and the Raiders defense can get out of position at times. I like a running quarterback in a high scoring game and at +450 it is a nice return if either of these guys score.
Marcus Mariota (TEN) +450
Kendall Wright (TEN) +350
Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins
Combined Quarterback Sacks
The Browns and the Dolphins have both had trouble keeping the quarterback upright. The Browns are giving up an average of 3 sacks a game this year and that is consistent with the 3.3 sacks a game they gave up last year. Miami is giving up 2.5 sacks per game this year and that is a little down from 2.8 last year. I know the Browns don’t have much of a pass rush but Tannehill has a tendency to hold the ball and get sacked when he shouldn’t.
Over 4½ Sacks -125
More to come please check back as we will be adding more as we confirm lineups.