Live Football Betting Strategy – Basics

 Live Betting Lines from Bovada

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The Middle

A middle is a gambler taking advantage of  a change in the line to get both sides of a game. In non-live betting this would mean going to two different books or making a halftime bet if he got the right odds. An example would be if he got the Arizona Cardinals at +7 before the game and the game had a halftime score of Arizona 14 – Denver 10. If the bookmaker then placed a halftime line of the Broncos -5 in the second half. He could take the Broncos and be able to win both bets.

Final score the Broncos win the game by more than 1 point he wins the halftime bet.

Final score the Cardinals win the game or lose by less than 7 points he wins pre-game bet.

If the Broncos win by 6 points (20-14) then he wins both bets.

This bet is one I will do if I want to lock in a profit and I can get key numbers; 3,4,6,7,10.

Applying to live football betting. This is easier to do with live betting than it is with halftime betting. The reason is the bookmaker will have this strategy in mind when he is laying a second half line. He does not want to lock in a profit for a lot of big players so he will try to offer a line that might not be “right” in his expectation as to what will happen in the second half but it will prevent middling. In live betting it is a computer program that sets the bets and it is working on an algorithm based on what will be needed to get equal action of both sides of this particular bet and not the action on the whole game.

The Injury

You might expect the live lines to be taken down when an injury occurs. In football, other than to a quarterback the lines are not brought down or suspended because of injury. This is where a little pregame research can go a long way. I have made significant money off of this. An area I like to research is the defensive backs. A situation I look for is a team that has several injuries to the reserve defensive backs or maybe one starter. This does not seem like such a big deal and will not move the line before the game. But, I have found that if a team is already thin in the secondary and then loses a couple of more players. This will not only alter the ability of the defense to defend the pass but will also alter the offensive play calling. In one game I knew that both backup safeties were hurt and the team had a guy off the practice squad and another they had waived earlier in the year and these were the only backup safeties they had. Well, both starts got nicked and when they went down the deep passes were wide open. It doesn’t happen often but there are certain positions to look at the will alter a game plan and not alter the line. When I am making live bets I always look at the starting and reserve defensive backs and offensive tackles. If I know a team has no depth at offensive tackle and I see a starter lying on the ground holding his knee…It is time to look at the under and a side bet on the other team

Know the Head Coach

Some teams can get out to an early lead and then poor it on (New England Patriots) and other teams will get out to a big lead and become so conservative that they let the other team back into the game (Kansas City Chiefs). Why, it is the head coach. Andy Reid is famous for this. In fact, I like him as a head coach. He is predictable. When the Chiefs get a lead in the first half I like to take the other team and the points. Conversely, when the Patriots get a lead. Brady and the Patriots will go for the kill and run it up. This is one of the keys to live betting and why it is different than traditional football betting. It is far more intense and the gambler must be focused on one game.

The head coach alone is not in charge of everything. I also like to know the tendencies of the offensive and defensive coordinators. Will the defense go into a prevent formation? If so, this is a good time to make a prop bet on the opposing quarterback passing yardage total. Yes, these types of prop bets are still available all game long so understanding coaching strategy is a money maker.

Look at the Line Play

Most people will focus on the quarterback or watch the ball on the first two series of the game. I like to focus on the offensive and defensive lines. These guys will tell me what strategy will and will not be successful. If I see the offensive line protecting the quarterback then he will be able to take several reads on what is available downfield. I have also seen offensive lines getting pushed around and I know it will be a long day for that quarterback. When the Broncos played the Seahawks in the Super Bowl it was obvious in the first quarter that Manning was going to get a beat down.