Using Derivatives for Football Prop Betting
If you remember the housing market crash you probably heard a lot about derivatives on the news. Many football propositions are derivatives. That means that one line derives from another.
An example of a derivative is a prop bet on which team will score first. This is a derivative of the game’s first half point spread and total. In fact, so much so that all you need to solve it is figure out what the betting line predicts for the half time score and then plug it into the following formula
-100 X ( Favorite first half score / Underdog first half score) = First score line
Let’s take the Patriots and the Broncos for this one. The first half line is currently.
Patriots vs Broncos First Half Spread
Patriots -2.5 and a total of 22
The formula is;
-100 X (12.5 / 10) = -125
The fair odds for which team will score first would therefore be Patriots -125 / Broncos +125. The current line has the Patriots at -130 to score first and the Broncos at 100. This sportsbook has a wide vig on the prop and makes it not worth betting. This can be frustrating to do all of the work and then find the book has put up a suckers line. That is one reason I have accounts at five different books. Once I have done the research it only takes a couple of minutes to find the best line.