Titans vs Patriots Prop Betting & Game Predictions 01-13-18 Playoffs

Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots
Prop Betting & Game Predictions 01-13-18 Playoffs

When: 8:15 PM ET, Saturday, January 13, 2018
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: CBS
Betting Line: Patriots -13.5.
Total: 48

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Titans vs Patriots Betting Preview

New England, the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC host the Tennessee (10-7) Titans to open the divisional playoff round. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for more interceptions (15) than touchdown passes (13) this season. However, last week he rushed eight times for 46 yards in the win over Kansas City. Add to that, running back Derrick Henry rushing for 156 yards and a score on 23 carries. Tight end Delanie Walker had a team-high 74 catches while Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker added 53 and 54, respectively. Tennessee is 25th against the pass (239.3 yards) but tied for fifth in the league with 43 sacks. The Patriots (13-3) Tom Brady put up his usual lead leading numbers with 4,577 passing yards and 32 touchdowns versus just eight interceptions. Dion Lewis has rushed for at least 92 yards in four of his past six games.Tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Brandin Cooks each went over 1,000 yards. The Patriots defense turned it around after getting hit hard early in the season and limited 10 of their last 12 opponents to 17 points or fewer.

Titans vs Patriots Prop Betting Preview

DVOA is from football outsiders. They are the best at breaking down football statistics. The left hand column has the defense vs position, the rank is the defensive rank vs that position, the offense is the offensive position, the position is the projected offensive starter at the position, targets are receiving targets during the regular season, rec = receptions during regular season, TD’s = regular season touchdowns, yards = passing yards.

Titans vs Patriots Matchup

wdt_ID Defense Rank Offense Players Targets Rec TDs Yards
1 Titans Titans Position Patriots Targets Rec TDs Yards
2 DVOA 25 Pos Player
3 vs. PASS 28 QB Tom Brady
4 vs. RUN 7 RB1 Dion Lewis 35 32 3 214
5 vs. RB-PA 31 RB2 Rex Burkhead 36 30 3 254
6 vs. WR1 11 WR1 Brandin Cooks 103 60 6 1,003
7 vs. WR2 29 WR2 Chris Hogan 59 34 5 439
8 vs. WR3 17 WR3 Danny Amendola 79 57 2 616
9 vs. TEs 24 TE Rob Gronkowski 105 69 8 1,083
10 Patriots Pats Position Titans Targets Rec TDs Yards
Defense Rank Offense Players Targets Rec TDs Yards

Tennessee Titans

Marcus Mariota

The Titans are two touchdown underdogs against the Patriots on Saturday. Mariota provides some upside with his legs, and the passing volume caused by playing from behind can help drive up his passing yardage.

DeMarco Murray – Out

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry abused the Chiefs in the Wild Card round. Watching that game I had to wonder why Murray kept getting the touches this season instead of Henry. Henry rushed 23 times for 156 yards and a score against the Chiefs. The one downside to Henry is that he is not known as a good receiving back but last week down 21-3, the Chiefs still came out running in the second half. Henry is also a good bet to get the ball in the red zone.

Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews

Erik Decker is the guy to watch in the red zone. Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker are also in play here. These guys are in play if the Titans are behind and Mariota has to throw more than last week. 

 

 

New England Patriots

Tom Brady

Tom Brady wasn’t the world beater down the stretch.Take a look at our prop betting database of all player prop bets offered by Bovada on Tom Brady this season and you will see how he faded in the last five games of the season. Is age catching up on him?

Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, Mike Gillilee, James White

Dion Lewis has locked down the #1 spot. Both Rex Burkhead and James White were dealing with injuries. Burkhead still seems questionable at best for this game, while White looks like he will play. Even if Burkhead does play, he will not be as effective and I expect his receiving targets to be taken by White and Hogan.

Rob Gronkowski

Rob Gronkowski is obviously the top tight end in the playoffs and I expect Brady to feed him the ball. As long as Gronk stays healthy I expect him to get 8+ targets a game.

Chris Hogan, Brandin Cooks

Chris Hogan is coming back from injury so take a look at the pregame reports to see how healthy he is. Brandin Cooks finished second on the Patriots in reciving yardage this season. The only problem with these two guys is there is only one ball so who will be the guy that gets the targets? I really like Cooks to get some deep passes this week as the Titans secondary just can not match up to him.

NFL Prop Betting Tips

Shop the lines. Betting odds & lines vary a lot from one sportsbook to another. It is not uncommon to see a quarterback yardage total of 250.5 at one sportsbook and 257.5 at another. The odds also vary depending on how much money has already been bet. There is nothing worse than losing a bet you could have won if you had just taken 5 minutes to line shop.

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Titans vs Patriots Betting Predictions

The Patriots are big home favorites at 13.5 and it looks like it might go to 14 points. The weather is expected to be light run with winds up to 20mph. That will impact the kicking game but I do not expect it to alter the offensive game plans. The Patriots must be laughing at how the Chiefs blew a big lead and let the Titans win last week. The Titans can be beat by a good tight end and the Patriots have one of the best of all time and he will have a big day. I have Brady getting 4 touchdowns and leading the Patriots to over 30 points. The Titans are a tough physical team but they do not have the receivers to stay with the Patriots. Derrick Henry will get a workout and should get to his hundred yards in the second half. I do like the Titans to get second half points and that will get the game over the total.

Betting Pick: Over 48 & Patriots -13.5

Score Prediction: Patriots 38 – Titans 20

Titans vs Patriots Prop Betting Predictions

Receiving Yards Rob Gronkowski 77½ -125 Over
Receiving Yards Brandin Cooks 70½ -125 Over
Receiving Yards Chris Hogan 45½ -125 Over
Receiving Yards Derrick Henry 17½ -105 Under
Receiving Yards Rishard Matthews 42½ 105 Under
Receptions Rob Gronkowski 5½ -115 Over
Rushing Yards Derrick Henry 75½ -125 Over
Rushing Yards Marcus Mariota 27½ -125 Over
Passing Yards Marcus Mariota 219½ -105 Under
Passing Yards Tom Brady 280½ -125 Over
Touchdown Passes Tom Brady 2 -175 Over
Completions Tom Brady 24 -125 Over

Player prop betting odds from Bovada

Titans vs Patriots Player Prop Betting Odds

wdt_ID Betting Event Player Line Odds O/U
1 Receiving Yards Danny Amendola 37½ -115 Over
2 Receiving Yards Danny Amendola 37½ -115 Under
3 Receiving Yards Chris Hogan 45½ -125 Over
4 Receiving Yards Chris Hogan 45½ -105 Under
5 Receiving Yards Rob Gronkowski 77½ -125 Over
6 Receiving Yards Rob Gronkowski 77½ -105 Under
7 Receiving Yards James White 24½ -115 Over
8 Receiving Yards James White 24½ -115 Under
9 Receiving Yards Dion Lewis 19½ -125 Over
10 Receiving Yards Dion Lewis 19½ -105 Under
Betting Event Player Line Odds O/U