Saints vs Vikings Prop Bet Predictions 01-14-18 Playoffs

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings
Prop Bet & Score Predictions 01-14-18 Playoffs

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: FOX
Betting Line: Vikings -5
Total: 46.5

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Saints vs Vikings Betting Preview

The Minnesota Vikings defeated the visiting New Orleans Saints in their season opener and if they can beat them again they will be just one game away from hosting Super Bowl 52.

The Saints (12-5) turned to Drew Brees last week and he had one of his best games of the season by throwing for 376 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-26 win over the Carolina Panthers. Running backs Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara became the first running back duo in league history to gain more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Kamara finished second among running backs in catches with 81 during the regular season.

Case Keenum watched as Sam Bradford earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns in the 29-19 win over the Saints on Sept. 11. After Bradford was injured, Case got his chance he responded with his best season; completions (325), attempts (481), yards (3,547), touchdowns (22) and passer rating (98.3) while posting an 11-3 mark as a starter. The Vikings (13-3) also have a different running back now as Latavius Murray’s replaced rookie Dalvin Cook after he suffered a season ending knee injury. Murray had eight touchdowns in his last 10 games of the season. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs scored two touchdowns in the week one meeting with the Saints but it was Thielen who had the big day.

Saints vs Vikings Prop Betting Preview

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback Drew Brees threw for well over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the wild card round victory over the Panthers. He will face a Vikings team that ranked in the top five in DVOA against both the run and the pass. The one place the Vikings defense can be beat consistently is in the slot and I am looking for Brees to take advantage of this matchup.

The Panthers held Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to a total of 19 carries for 45 yards. In week one the Saints running backs (Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram) combined for just 60 rushing yards against this Vikings defense.This week I like Kamara to get more touches as he is the better receiver which will fit a heavier passing game by Brees.

Xavier Rhodes did not shadow Michael Thomas in the season opener between these teams. I don’t expect him to this time either and it is worth noting he rarely covers the slot receiver. That would give slot receiver Brandon Coleman strong upside. I like Ginn to get his one big play a game which gives him more upside for an over on a yardage prop than a receptions prop.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback Case Keenum might just be the MVP if it wasn’t for Wentz and Gurley. This will be his first playoff game and last week we saw what happened to Jared Goff in his first. He goes against a defense ranked fifth in the NFL in DVOA against the pass but last week we saw some holes that can be exploited. I like Keenum to be able to take several deep shots against the Saints and he should come close to 300 passing yards.

The Vikings should be able to attack the Saints on the ground, which is where their defense is weakest as they allowed 4.4 yards per carry. The big question that we need to answer is which one of the running backs will do the damage. Which back will get the touches this week? Jerick McKinnon or DeMarco Murray. I prefer McKinnon for the yards but Murray to get the ball down close in the red zone so if you bet a touchdown prop then take Murray.

Saints corner back Marshon Lattimore will likely see a lot of Stefon Diggs in this game which should open up Adam Thielen in the slot. Thielen had nine receptions for 157 yards in the Week 1. Kyle Rudolph is not a good receiver (look at his prop results this year) and the Saints were generally solid against tight ends for much of the season.

While the Saints are weaker against the run than the pass, I expect a higher scoring game than most people so I have the Saints needing to pass to stay in the game.

DVOA and Player Matchup

DVOA is from football outsiders. They are the best at breaking down football statistics. The left hand column has the defense vs position, the rank is the defensive rank vs that position, the offense is the offensive position, the position is the projected offensive starter at the position, targets are receiving targets during the regular season, rec = receptions during regular season, TD’s = regular season touchdowns, yards = passing yards.

Saints vs Vikings DVOA vs Player Matchup

wdt_ID Defense Rank Offense Targets Rec TDs Yards
1 Matchup Vikings
2 DVOA 3 New Orleans Saints
3 vs. PASS 4 Drew Brees
4 vs. RUN 5 Mark Ingram
5 vs. RB-PA 2 Alvin Kamara `
6 vs. WR1 6 Michael Thomas 150 106 5 1,282
7 vs. WR2 4 Ted Ginn 70 54 5 869
8 vs. WR3 15 Brandon Coleman 41 27 3 408
9 vs. TEs 3 Josh Hill 24 18 2 166
10 Matchup Saints
Defense Rank Offense Targets Rec TDs Yards

NFL Prop Betting Tips

Shop the lines. Betting odds & lines vary a lot from one sportsbook to another. It is not uncommon to see a quarterback yardage total of 250.5 at one sportsbook and 257.5 at another. The odds also vary depending on how much money has already been bet. There is nothing worse than losing a bet you could have won if you had just taken 5 minutes to line shop.

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Saints vs Vikings Betting Predictions

Two top defensive teams go at it in Minnesota for the final playoff game of the weekend. While the season long stats stay great defensive matchup, the recent play by the Saints defense shows they can be beat on the ground and I expect the Vikings to run the ball early and often. Once they get the run going look for Case to go play action for a deep pass to Thielen. For the Saints, Drew Brees can still throw the ball when he needs to like he did last week and I expect him to do so again this week. My primary bet is on the over. I am also taking the Saints as long as I can get 4 points or more. I still have the Vikings winning but I also have it as a close game.

Betting Picks using Bovada sportsbook lines

Pick: Saints +5 & over 47 points

Score Prediction: Vikings 31 – Saints 27

Saints vs Vikings Player Prop Betting Predictions

  • Receiving Yards Adam Thielen MIN 69½ -125 Over
  • Receiving Yards Ted Ginn Jr. NO 45½ -125 Over
  • Receiving Yards Mark Ingram NO 19½ -105 Under
  • Receiving Yards Alvin Kamara NO 45½ -125 Over
  • Receiving Yards Stefon Diggs MIN 57½ -105 Under
  • Receiving Yards Kyle Rudolph MIN 32½ -105 Under
  • Rushing Yards Mark Ingram NO 55½ -105 Under
  • Rushing Yards Alvin Kamara NO 42½ -105 Under
  • Rushing Yards Jerick McKinnon MIN 40½ -115 Over
  • Rush & Rec Yards Alvin Kamara NO 90½ -125 Over
  • Passing Yards Drew Brees NO 265½ -125 Over
  • Passing Yards Case Keenum MIN 235½ -125 Over
  • Touchdown Passes Drew Brees NO 1½ -140 Over
  • Passing Attempts Drew Brees NO 35½ -125 Over
  • Passing Attempts Case Keenum MIN 32½ -125 Over