Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots AFC Championship Prop Betting Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots
AFC Championship Prop Betting Picks

When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 21, 2018
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Betting Line: New England Patriots -9
Total: 46.5 points

What you will find here that you will not find anywhere else. We tracked nearly 6,000 player prop bets offered by Bovada sportsbook on the 2017 NFL season. We have odds, lines, results on every player prop bet offered on the Patriots and Jaguars players. Take the time to check them out before your daily fantasy sportsbook draft or before you make a player prop bet.
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Field Goals – Red Zone Offense & Defense

Because I started out prop betting in Las Vegas casinos. I began looking at field goals because they were always listed on parlay cards for Sunday & Monday night games. I found they were one of the easiest prop bets to win. The key on field goals made is to have an offense gain enough yards to get in field goal position and not be able to score a touchdown. That lead me to taking a serious look at red zone offense & defense.

The Jaguars and Patriots both have top red zone offenses. The Patriots as expected were #3 in red zone offense scoring a touchdown on 62.67% of their trips. What most people do not know is that Jacksonville was the NFLs #1 ranked red zone offense scoring on 67.86% of the time they had the ball in the red zone. On the road, Jacksonville was even better scoring on 73.33% of red zone trips. The Patriots at home scored on 68.29% of red zone drives so we have two of the top teams in the NFL at getting touchdowns instead of field goals on offense.

On defense, both teams are good at stopping opposing offenses from scoring touchdowns. Overall, the Jacksonville defense allowed touchdowns on just 43.75% of red zone drives while the Patriots defense allowed touchdowns on 46.00% of drives.  

When if comes to field goals, the Patriots are getting more field goals per game than the Jaguars. Overall, the Jaguars scored an average of 1.8 field goals per game and the Patriots averaged 2.2 field goals per game. On the road the Jags averaged 1.7 field goals and the Pats at home averaged 1.8 field goals. On defense, both these two teams tied as the #4th ranked team in field goals allowed at 1.3 field goals per game.

Scoring by Quarter & Live Betting

Another popular prop bet is scoring by quarters or by half. That has also evolved into who will score first and what type of score will happen first. Before making one of these prop bets we need to look at scoring by quarter on both offense and opponent offensive scoring. This is also vital to “live betting” or “in game betting”. If you have never done this before at least give it a look here. The live lines will be up about 5 minutes before kickoff and the lines will be updated every play. Not only will “in game lines” be available for the game. They will also be available for the next drive, the next play and there will be player prop bets available during the game. Yes, you can still bet on how well Tom Brady will do midway into the second quarter. This is something that professional gamblers take advantage of. Wait and see the game plan and how well the offensive line will hold up BEFORE making your prop bet on Tom Brady. Again, if you have never done this take a look at “in game betting on Bovada”. For those of you not familiar with Bovada it is the number one rated online sportsbook for USA customers.

Jaguars vs Patriots Scoring by Quarter

wdt_ID Scoring by Quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total
1 Overall - Offense
2 Jaguars 5.4 7.2 6.2 7.2 26.0
3 Patriots 5.4 11.8 6.1 5.8 29.1
4 Combined 10.8 19.0 12.3 13.0 55.1
5 Home/Away - Offense
6 Jaguars 5.5 8.4 5.1 9.1 28.1
7 Patriots 6.8 13.8 5.6 6.4 32.6
8 Combined 12.3 22.2 10.7 15.5 60.7
9 Overall - Defense
10 Jaguars 2.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 17.3
11 Patriots 4.1 5.8 3.0 5.4 18.3
12 Combined 6.6 10.5 7.9 10.6 35.6
13 Home/Away - Defense
14 Jaguars 2.3 5.5 4.0 6.0 17.8
15 Patriots 4.4 5.7 2.6 3.1 15.8
16 ` 6.7 11.2 6.6 9.1 33.6
1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total

Sacks Per Game – Offense / Defense

On offense, the Jaguars gave up an average of 1.4 sacks per game and the Patriots gave up an average of 2.1 sacks per game. The home/away splits had the Jaguars giving up slight fewer sacks on the road at an average of 1.2 per game and the Patriots giving up slightly more at home in 2.3 sacks per game. On defense, the Jaguars finished second in the NFL with an average of 3.3 defensive sacks per game and the Patriots were not far behind and finished 5th with 2.9 sacks per game. The home / road splits had both teams doing better in the situation they will find themselves in on Sunday. On the road the Jaguars averaged 4.1 sacks per game and at home the Patriots defense averaged 3.8 sacks per game. This is one area where the Patriots have had trouble over the years with Tom Brady and his lack of mobility. You just have to go back two years and remember what the Broncos defense did to the Patriots in the playoffs and how a top pass rush was able to stifle the Patriots offense.

Passing Yards Per Game

When it comes to passing yards the obvious advantage goes to the New England Patriots. The chart below gives a breakdown of the teams offense vs the opposing teams defense with overall and home / away splits. Both teams were good at not throwing interceptions with the Patriots at home excelling with only an average of 0.2 interceptions per game.

To provide you with far more depth on quarterback prop betting. We have our player prop betting results from Bovada online sportsbook. We tracked EVERY player prop bet for both quarterbacks and have the; odds, lines, results and if the over or under covered. If you are serious about prop betting or playing daily fantasy football. Look at these stats before wagering.

Tom Brady Bovada Prop Betting Results

Blake Bortles Bovada Prop Betting Results

Why you need to look at the betting results? Blake Bortles was (9-4) to the OVER on passing yardage prop bets during the regular season.

Jaguars vs Patriots 2017 Passing Stats

wdt_ID Team Off Stats Opp Stats Offense H/A Opponents H/A
1 Completions Overall Overall Home/Away Home/Away
2 Jaguars 19.0 22.9 16.9 21.9
3 Patriots 24.9 19.1 24.3 21.9
4 Attempts Overall Overall Home/Away Home/Away
5 Jaguars 32.0 36.9 30.3 33.9
6 Patriots 37.6 32.7 37.4 36.6
7 Passing Yards Overall Overall Home/Away Home/Away
8 Jaguars 215.7 248.4 193 240.9
9 Patriots 279.7 184.1 266 200
10 Touchdowns Overall Overall Home/Away Home/Away
Team Off Stats Opp Stats Offense H/A Opponents H/A

Rushing Yards Per Game

When it comes to rushing the ball, the Jaguars were the best team in the NFL. For the 2017 season, the Jaguars averaged 143.4 yards per game and on the road, they averaged 148.4 per game. The Patriots averaged 117.1 rushing yards per game overall and 128.8 at home. On defense, the Jags gave up 115.2 per game and the Pats surrendered 111.8 per game. On the road the Jaguars defense gave up an average of 113.7 per game and the Patriots actually did a better job at home and only gave up an average of 109.2 yards per game. While the Patriots have done a good job of not giving up a lot of rushing yards. That can be misleading because they were ahead of other teams and forced them to pass from behind. The Jaguars will need to run the ball in order to set up Blake Bortles and the play action pass so look for the Jags to stay with the run as long as the game is close.

DVOA vs Offensive Player Position

Since prop wagering is often more about individual matchups than the team results. One important thing to do is breakdown the player vs the DVOA. This is common for daily fantasy football players and should be a part of your research for any player prop bet.

See our Jaguars Bovada Player Prop Bet Results for the 2017 Season

See our Patriots Bovada Player Prop Bet Results for the 2017 Season

 

Jaguars vs Patriots DVOA vs Position

wdt_ID DVOA Rank Offense Player Targets Rec TDs Yards
1 Jaguars 2 Pos Player
2 vs. PASS 1 QB Tom Brady
3 vs. RUN 29 RB1 Dion Lewis 35 32 3 214.0
4 vs. RB-PA 10 RB2 Rex Burkhead 36 30 3 254.0
5 vs. WR1 1 WR1 Brandin Cooks 103 60 6 1,003.0
6 vs. WR2 8 WR2 Chris Hogan 59 34 5 439.0
7 vs. WR3 11 WR3 Danny Amendola 79 57 2 616.0
8 vs. TEs 19 TE Rob Gronkowski 105 69 8 1,083.0
9 DVOA Offense Player
10 Patriots 32 Pos Jacksonville
DVOA Rank Offense Player Targets Rec TDs Yards

Jaguars vs Patriots AFC Championship
Game Betting Pick & Score Prediction

The Jaguars shouldn’t be here. At least if Las Vegas sportsbooks were right because they were 7.5 point underdogs (see my betting pick on the Jaguars vs Steelers here). However, Las Vegas was wrong and the Jacksonville team that was maligned for its offense ended up scoring 45 points. Which offense will show up this time? I have this game a lower scoring and close game than the Las Vegas sportsbooks. The Patriots offense has a worse matchup here than they would have had against the Steelers. If you look back at the Patriots team when they had problems scoring it was against teams that were able to get pressure on Brady without needing to blitz often. The Jaguars defense will go all out for Tom Brady and will get enough hits on him to disrupt the Pats offense. For the Jaguars, I have them being able to run the ball effectively against the Patriots. Do I have the Jaguars winning? No, but I do have them keeping the game close and covering the point spread.

Betting Pick: Jacksonville +9

Score Prediction: Patriots 23 – Jacksonville 17

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Jaguars vs Patriots Player Prop Betting Predictions

Bovada has released the player prop betting lines and team prop betting lines. They will change constantly between now and kickoff. See current betting lines from Bovada here.

Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Chris Hogan NE 44½ -105 Under
Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Danny Amendola NE 40½ -105 Under
Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Rob Gronkowski NE 80½ -130 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Allen Hurns JAC 27½ -125 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Rushing Yards Leonard Fournette JAC 79½ -125 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Rushing Yards Dion Lewis NE 65½ -115 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Rush & Rec James White NE 35½ -125 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Passing Yards Blake Bortles JAC 220½ -125 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Passing Yards Tom Brady NE 290½ 100 Under
Jaguars vs Patriots Interceptions Thrown Tom Brady NE ½ 130 Over

Player Prop Betting Odds Database * Both Games

Bovada Player Prop Bet Odds AFC NFC

wdt_ID Game Event Player Team Line Odds O/U
1 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Chris Hogan NE 44½ -125 Over
2 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Chris Hogan NE 44½ -105 Under
3 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Dion Lewis NE 29½ -130 Over
4 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Dion Lewis NE 29½ 100 Under
5 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Danny Amendola NE 40½ -125 Over
6 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Danny Amendola NE 40½ -105 Under
7 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Rob Gronkowski NE 80½ -130 Over
8 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Rob Gronkowski NE 80½ 100 Under
9 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards James White NE 22½ -125 Over
10 Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards James White NE 22½ -105 Under
Game Event Player Team Line Odds O/U