Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots
AFC Championship Prop Betting Picks
When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 21, 2018
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Betting Line: New England Patriots -9
Total: 46.5 points
What you will find here that you will not find anywhere else. We tracked nearly 6,000 player prop bets offered by Bovada sportsbook on the 2017 NFL season. We have odds, lines, results on every player prop bet offered on the Patriots and Jaguars players. Take the time to check them out before your daily fantasy sportsbook draft or before you make a player prop bet.
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Field Goals – Red Zone Offense & Defense
Because I started out prop betting in Las Vegas casinos. I began looking at field goals because they were always listed on parlay cards for Sunday & Monday night games. I found they were one of the easiest prop bets to win. The key on field goals made is to have an offense gain enough yards to get in field goal position and not be able to score a touchdown. That lead me to taking a serious look at red zone offense & defense.
The Jaguars and Patriots both have top red zone offenses. The Patriots as expected were #3 in red zone offense scoring a touchdown on 62.67% of their trips. What most people do not know is that Jacksonville was the NFLs #1 ranked red zone offense scoring on 67.86% of the time they had the ball in the red zone. On the road, Jacksonville was even better scoring on 73.33% of red zone trips. The Patriots at home scored on 68.29% of red zone drives so we have two of the top teams in the NFL at getting touchdowns instead of field goals on offense.
On defense, both teams are good at stopping opposing offenses from scoring touchdowns. Overall, the Jacksonville defense allowed touchdowns on just 43.75% of red zone drives while the Patriots defense allowed touchdowns on 46.00% of drives.
When if comes to field goals, the Patriots are getting more field goals per game than the Jaguars. Overall, the Jaguars scored an average of 1.8 field goals per game and the Patriots averaged 2.2 field goals per game. On the road the Jags averaged 1.7 field goals and the Pats at home averaged 1.8 field goals. On defense, both these two teams tied as the #4th ranked team in field goals allowed at 1.3 field goals per game.
Scoring by Quarter & Live Betting
Jaguars vs Patriots Scoring by Quarter
|wdt_ID||Scoring by Quarter||1st||2nd||3rd||4th||Total|
|1||Overall - Offense|
|5||Home/Away - Offense|
|9||Overall - Defense|
|13||Home/Away - Defense|
Sacks Per Game – Offense / Defense
Passing Yards Per Game
To provide you with far more depth on quarterback prop betting. We have our player prop betting results from Bovada online sportsbook. We tracked EVERY player prop bet for both quarterbacks and have the; odds, lines, results and if the over or under covered. If you are serious about prop betting or playing daily fantasy football. Look at these stats before wagering.
Why you need to look at the betting results? Blake Bortles was (9-4) to the OVER on passing yardage prop bets during the regular season.
Jaguars vs Patriots 2017 Passing Stats
|wdt_ID||Team||Off Stats||Opp Stats||Offense H/A||Opponents H/A|
|Team||Off Stats||Opp Stats||Offense H/A||Opponents H/A|
Rushing Yards Per Game
DVOA vs Offensive Player Position
Since prop wagering is often more about individual matchups than the team results. One important thing to do is breakdown the player vs the DVOA. This is common for daily fantasy football players and should be a part of your research for any player prop bet.
See our Jaguars Bovada Player Prop Bet Results for the 2017 Season
See our Patriots Bovada Player Prop Bet Results for the 2017 Season
Jaguars vs Patriots DVOA vs Position
|2||vs. PASS||1||QB||Tom Brady|
|3||vs. RUN||29||RB1||Dion Lewis||35||32||3||214.0|
|4||vs. RB-PA||10||RB2||Rex Burkhead||36||30||3||254.0|
|5||vs. WR1||1||WR1||Brandin Cooks||103||60||6||1,003.0|
|6||vs. WR2||8||WR2||Chris Hogan||59||34||5||439.0|
|7||vs. WR3||11||WR3||Danny Amendola||79||57||2||616.0|
|8||vs. TEs||19||TE||Rob Gronkowski||105||69||8||1,083.0|
Jaguars vs Patriots AFC Championship
Game Betting Pick & Score Prediction
The Jaguars shouldn’t be here. At least if Las Vegas sportsbooks were right because they were 7.5 point underdogs (see my betting pick on the Jaguars vs Steelers here). However, Las Vegas was wrong and the Jacksonville team that was maligned for its offense ended up scoring 45 points. Which offense will show up this time? I have this game a lower scoring and close game than the Las Vegas sportsbooks. The Patriots offense has a worse matchup here than they would have had against the Steelers. If you look back at the Patriots team when they had problems scoring it was against teams that were able to get pressure on Brady without needing to blitz often. The Jaguars defense will go all out for Tom Brady and will get enough hits on him to disrupt the Pats offense. For the Jaguars, I have them being able to run the ball effectively against the Patriots. Do I have the Jaguars winning? No, but I do have them keeping the game close and covering the point spread.
Betting Pick: Jacksonville +9
Score Prediction: Patriots 23 – Jacksonville 17
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Jaguars vs Patriots Player Prop Betting Predictions
Bovada has released the player prop betting lines and team prop betting lines. They will change constantly between now and kickoff. See current betting lines from Bovada here.
Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Chris Hogan NE 44½ -105 Under
Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Danny Amendola NE 40½ -105 Under
Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Rob Gronkowski NE 80½ -130 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Receiving Yards Allen Hurns JAC 27½ -125 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Rushing Yards Leonard Fournette JAC 79½ -125 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Rushing Yards Dion Lewis NE 65½ -115 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Rush & Rec James White NE 35½ -125 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Passing Yards Blake Bortles JAC 220½ -125 Over
Jaguars vs Patriots Passing Yards Tom Brady NE 290½ 100 Under
Jaguars vs Patriots Interceptions Thrown Tom Brady NE ½ 130 Over
Player Prop Betting Odds Database * Both Games
Bovada Player Prop Bet Odds AFC NFC
|1||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||Chris Hogan||NE||44½||-125||Over|
|2||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||Chris Hogan||NE||44½||-105||Under|
|3||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||Dion Lewis||NE||29½||-130||Over|
|4||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||Dion Lewis||NE||29½||100||Under|
|5||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||Danny Amendola||NE||40½||-125||Over|
|6||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||Danny Amendola||NE||40½||-105||Under|
|7||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||Rob Gronkowski||NE||80½||-130||Over|
|8||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||Rob Gronkowski||NE||80½||100||Under|
|9||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||James White||NE||22½||-125||Over|
|10||Jaguars vs Patriots||Receiving Yards||James White||NE||22½||-105||Under|