Falcons vs Eagles Prop Betting & Game Predictions 01-13-18 Playoffs

Atlanta Falcons vs Philadelphia Eagles
Prop Betting & Game Predictions 01-13-18 Playoffs

When: 4:35 PM ET, Saturday, January 13, 2018
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
TV: NBC
Betting Line: Falcons -3
Total: 41

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Falcons vs Eagles Betting Preview

The Eagles are the first number one seed in league history to enter its opening playoff game as an underdog. There are reasons the road Falcons are favored. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons roll in after a 26-13 win over the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. The Falcons (11-6) wide receiver Julio Jones had nine receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown last week against the Rams  Add to that, the Falcons running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman who combined for 1,493 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns this season. On defense, Atlanta has allowed just 16.3 points per game over the last six games. The loss of quarterback Carson Wentz has the Philadelphia (13-3) Eagles turning to quarterback Nick Foles. Foles followed up a four-touchdown performance versus the New York Giants with a combined 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions over his last two games. Of course, in week 17 the Eagles did rest a lot of the starters. Since most fans did not watch the game against the Cowboys in week 17, a large share of the betting public reaction is based on the bad performance against a weak Oakland secondary in week 16. That was three weeks ago and Foles has taken plenty of practice snaps since then.

Falcons vs Eagles Prop Betting Preview

DVOA is from football outsiders. They are the best at breaking down football statistics. The left hand column has the defense vs position, the rank is the defensive rank vs that position, the offense is the offensive position, the position is the projected offensive starter at the position, targets are receiving targets during the regular season, rec = receptions during regular season, TD’s = regular season touchdowns, yards = passing yards.

Eagles vs Falcons DVOA & Player Matchup

wdt_ID Defense Rank Offense Targets Rec TDs Yards
1 Position DVOA Eagles Player
2 Team 5 Falcons
3 vs. PASS 6 Matt Ryan
4 vs. RUN 4 Devonta Freeman 47 36 1 166
5 vs. RB-PA 9 Tevin Coleman 39 27 3 140
6 vs. WR1 8 Julio Jones 147 92 4 1,458
7 vs. WR2 2 Mohamed Sanu 93 64 5 707
8 vs. WR3 22 Justin Hardy 26 18 3 189
9 vs. TEs 17 Austin Hooper 67 49 3 506
10 Defense Rank Offense 0 0 0 0
Defense Rank Offense Targets Rec TDs Yards

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan

This has been a down year for Matt Ryan. However, he does have playoff experience and won last week on the road as an underdog. The Eagles have a very solid defense, but they are vulnerable to the pass. For the Falcons passing game to be successful, they will have to get the ball to the slot receiver and tight end where the Eagles do play soft.

Tevin Coleman & Devonta Freeman

Against the Rams the Falcons had 39 rushing attempts and where able to grind down the Rams defense.The rushing splits were; Devonta Freeman 18 and Tevin Coleman 14. The Rams were known to be soft against the run but this week they go against an Eagles defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season.

Austin Hooper, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu,

Julio Jones caught nine of his ten targets for 94 yards in the win against the Rams. Mohamed Sanu is in a tough spot this week against the Eagles defense that plays well against wide receiver #2. Austin Hooper has the best matchup this week as the Eagles have been vulnerable to tight ends.

Philadelphia Eagles

Nick Foles

Nick Foles looked terrible in the final two weeks of the season. However, I think there has been an overreaction and the Falcons do not have a strong overall defense. They do have a decent pass rush but with the extra week off gave the Eagles and Foles the opportunity to get his timing down with his receivers.

Jay Ajayi & LeGarrette Blount

Jay Ajayi got 14 of the team’s 21 carries in Week 16. Look for the Eagles to feed him the ball more and help out Foles by developing a running game early. Blount has not been a good receiver so look for him to get more carries in the second half after the undersized Atlanta defense is a little worn down. The Falcons linebackers are very good at shutting down receiving backs because they are speedy but undersized linebackers. The Eagles need to do what the Rams did not and stick to the run early and beat down the Falcons defense.

Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor, Ashlon Jeffery, Torry Smith

With Foles at quarterback I have to wonder if the Eagles will stick with a heavy run first offense and limit the targets to the receivers. One guy Foles likes is tight end Zach Ertz who caught nine passes on the 14 targets against the Raiders in Week 16. Both Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor should have good matchups but it is hard to pick out which one Foles will target. For this game watch the weather reports. Foles doesn’t have the strongest arm so if there is a heavy cross wind he will stick to short passes. But, if there is little wind the look for him to take shots downfield and I like Ashlon Jeffery in that situation.

NFL Prop Betting Tips

Shop the lines. Betting odds & lines vary a lot from one sportsbook to another. It is not uncommon to see a quarterback yardage total of 250.5 at one sportsbook and 257.5 at another. The odds also vary depending on how much money has already been bet. There is nothing worse than losing a bet you could have won if you had just taken 5 minutes to line shop.

Use all of your bonus offers. You most likely know about the welcome bonus and there is an opportunity to leverage your betting while you line shop by opening accounts at several different sportsbooks and taking full advantage of the welcome bonus at each one. There is also another way to add to your bonus total. The refer a friend bonus. You open an account at sportsbook Bovada and your friend opens an account at Sportsbetting.ag. Then you refer each other and collect the refer-a-freind bonus offer.

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Falcons vs Eagles Betting Predictions

The Eagles are home dogs as the number one seed. This makes me happy. As a gambler I love situations where the public and the media overreact to one bad game. The Eagles are the better team, they are rested and they have home field advantage. I am all over the Eagles in several bets.

Betting Picks using Bovada sportsbook lines

65% Eagles +3,
25% Eagles Money Line,
10% Eagles -3.5 at (+195)

Score Prediction: Eagles 26 – Falcons 17

Falcons vs Eagles Player Prop Betting Predictions

Receiving Yards Zach Ertz PHI 55½  -105  Over
Receiving Yards Alshon Jeffery PHI 52½ -115 Over
Receiving Yards Austin Hooper ATL 22½ -115 Over
Receiving Yards Julio Jones ATL 87½ -115 Under
Receptions Zach Ertz PHI 5½ 100 Over
Rushing Yards Jay Ajayi PHI 62½ -115 Over
Rushing and Receiving Yards Jay Ajayi PHI 77½ -115 Over
Passing Yards Matt Ryan ATL 250½ -105 Under
Passing Yards Nick Foles PHI 215½ -105 Under
Total Successful Field Goals Both teams 3½ -115 Over
Total Successful Field Goals Eagles 1½ -130 Over

Falcons vs Eagles Prop Bet Odds

wdt_ID Betting Event Player Team Line Odds O/U
1 Receiving Yards Zach Ertz PHI 55½ -105 Over
2 Receiving Yards Zach Ertz PHI 55½ -125 Under
3 Receiving Yards Devonta Freeman ATL 20½ -115 Over
4 Receiving Yards Devonta Freeman ATL 20½ -115 Under
5 Receiving Yards Nelson Agholor PHI 40½ -115 Over
6 Receiving Yards Nelson Agholor PHI 40½ -115 Under
7 Receiving Yards Alshon Jeffery PHI 52½ -115 Over
8 Receiving Yards Alshon Jeffery PHI 52½ -115 Under
9 Receiving Yards Tevin Coleman ATL 20½ -115 Over
10 Receiving Yards Tevin Coleman ATL 20½ -115 Under
Betting Event Player Team Line Odds O/U