2018 Super Bowl 52 Expert Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 4, 2018
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Bovada Betting Line: New England Patriots -4.5 (-115)
Game Total: 48.5
Eagles vs Patriots Betting Tips
Eagles Rushing Offense vs Patriots Rushing Defense
Philadelphia had (2,115) rushing yards during the regular season. However, the Eagles struggled with fumbles – committing 11 during the regular season and another three in the playoffs. On defense, the Patriots allowed opposing rushers to gain 4.6 yards per carry. New England did hold Jacksonville to 101 yards on 32 carries in the AFC Championship and that is more indicative of what I expect in the Super Bowl. The Patriots will do what they must to stop the Eagles running game and force Nick Foles to beat them.
Low Scoring First Quarter
The first quarter total betting line for the Super Bowl is set at 9.5. Looking at recent Super Bowl betting trends, 11 of the last 16 games have produced fewer than nine points in the first quarter. Add to that, the Patriots have been shutout in the first quarter in each of their seven Super Bowl appearances and they’ve given up a total of just 15 points. That means the average total points scored in the first quarter of Super Bowls involving New England is 2.1.
This season the Pats averaged 5.3 points in the first quarter of games during the regular season but put up three points total in the first quarters of their two playoff games this season. The Philadelphia Eagles average 6.3 points in the first quarter during the regular season but were held scoreless against the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional round of the playoffs.
If you are interested in “in game” betting this is a good spot. Wait for the game total to drop during the first quarter. If as I expect it is a low scoring first quarter, the overall game total should drop down to the low forties or even high thirties. Since I expect the game to go over the posted total of 48.5, I will be waiting to make a live or “in game” wager midway into or late in the first quarter on the over.
Eagles Defensive Backs vs Patriots Quarterback
The Philadelphia Eagles weakness is the secondary. I watched several replays and the receivers were open against these guys. What saved them was a great pass rush and the inability of some quarterbacks to read the play and throw an accurate pass. Brady will have no problem completing several big plays against the Eagles . When I say no problem, I mean he will be hit several times but will still be able to take advantage of blown coverage’s for big plays.
Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots Prediction
Instead of dragging it out with a 5,000 word post I will just getting to the point.
I am betting on this game getting off to a slow start but picking up in the second quarter and then the scoring will come fast after that. In the end I have the Patriots covering the 4.5 points and the game going over the total. With all of the money still coming in on Philadelphia I am waiting to make my bet on the Patriots. If the number drops to -4 points before kickoff I will be taking it. I will make small straight bet and parlay on the Patriots with the over before the game but, since I expect a slow start to the scoring I will be waiting till late in the first quarter to make a larger bet on the over.