Tom Brady Prop Bet Picks
*** We will be adding picks up to kickoff * Check back for more***
Super Bowl LI is on February 5th, 2017 and once again Tom Brady will be starting a Super Bowl for the New England Patriots. After missing the first four games of the season because of a suspension he had another incredible season.
When making Super Bowl prop betting predictions I use my fantasy stats and betting stats. My fantasy model includes several other publicly available fantasy football prediction tools. They are a good start in estimating how an individual player will do.
Taking a look above at his last 5 games we can see that Tom only passed for more than 300 yards once. Against two of the better pass defending teams, (Denver and Houston) he passed the ball more than 30 times in each game.
Below are his previous Super Bowl starts. He has averaged 41 passing attempts in his previous Super Bowl starts. That average is brought down a little by his first Super Bowl against the Rams when the game plan was to run the ball and keep it away from a high powered Rams offense. If you are looking at a Tom Brady rushing prop bet. In his last 4 games he has -4 yards.
Tom Brady Prop Bet Picks
In making prop betting picks it is not enough to just make a pick. I also like to line shop. Sometimes I will make the same bet at different sportsbooks and split my bet according to the odds.
See current Super Bowl 51 Odds
Bovada: See Welcome Bonus offer & Odds
MyBookie: See Welcome Bonus offer & Odds
Sportsbetting: See Welcome Bonus offer & Odds
Tom Brady passing yards
Here is an example of why line shopping can help your ROI. At Bovada the odds are 315.5 passing yards with an over (-125), under (-105). While at Sportsbetting.ag it is 310.5 passing yards with an over (-130), under (100). I like the under for this bet. What I am looking at is a 5 yard difference (315.5 – 310.5) and five points on the odds (100 – 105). For me the odds are more important than five yards so I will be making this bet at Sportsbetting.ag
Passing Yards Bet: Under 310.5 (100) at Sportsbetting.ag
Tom Brady Rushing Yards (A bet you can’t lose)
This is my WELCOME BONUS bet. I already have used my welcome bonus from these two online sportsbooks but if you haven’t then you are in luck. Bovada has the rushing yards for Tom Brady at 2.5 yards with an over (-135), under (105). While Sportsbetting.ag has the rushing yards at 2.5 with an over of (100), under (-130). Since the rushing yards are identical we have a chance to middle the bet on the odds. Sportsbetting.ag has over 2.5 yards (100), while Bovada has the under at (105). This means you CAN NOT LOSE!!!
Why do I call this my welcome bonus bet? Because you need to make bets in order to unlock your welcome bonus. With this bet you can open accounts at both online sportsbooks and make bets at both. Since you are guaranteed at small profit AND the bets count toward unlocking your bonus…you can’t lose! So make your bets now before the odds change.
Tom Brady Passing Attemps
This one is pretty straight forward. I like under 33 attempts so all of the sportsbooks are in play on this bet. Bovada has the best odds I have seen so far so I am betting with them.