Example : Prop Betting Analysis Using Tom Brady & Peyton Manning

Example : Prop Betting Analysis

A fuller example of how to make your own line for a prop bet. I will use the 2015/16 AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. Let’s start with the stats.

  • Tom Brady Average Passing Yards: 298 (Median 293)
  • Peyton Manning Average Passing Yards (9 games) 263 (Median 266)
  • Patriots Average Passing Yards Allowed: 241
  • Broncos Average Passing Yards Allowed: 200
  • League Average Passing Yards Allowed: 244

We then did the following calculations, using the formula we showed you earlier.

For Tom Brady we have…

298 yard average x (200 / 244) = 244.26

For Peyton Manning we have…

263 yard average x (241 / 244) = 259.76

We then did the following calculations, using the formula we showed you earlier.

Now take an actual line (remember the lines can vary a lot of one book to another because it does not take much action to move a line)

Sportsbetting

Tom Brady Passing Yards 290.5 over / under -115

So we handicapped Brady at 244 yards and the sportsbook has him at 290 yards. The next step I take is to divide the two. I have Brady with 16% fewer yards than the book. As a general rule I like my passing yards to be +10% before I will make a bet.

But, I am not done. The next step is to look at any variable that can alter the outcome. First is the weather. Rain/snow are not bothersome but a heavy cross wind can cause several errant passes and take away the deep pass.

The next thing I look at are injuries. Is an offensive tackle hurt? Are the wide receivers healthy? How about the defensive backs?

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